Alan Dudman is looking to Godolphin on Sunday, and has highlighted a back and a lay at Pontefract...
"Allure has produced three runners, two have won. And both of those were unraced as juveniles (the same as Ad Dabaran) winning at three. And if he's got any talent, he really ought to beat this lot."
15:50 Carlisle - Back Arizona John
Arizona John is perfect back-to-lay material, and the admirable veteran can ensure a green book in the 1m3f handicap.
He has a stack of odds-on in-running defeats in his ledger (10 and counting), but he's a fairly genuine horse (but tricky) with a consistent record.
Being a strong traveller is a bonus for a runner trading at nearer 8.10. I think he's still treated fairly from 75 but this is a better race than his latest Thirsk win. He loves quick ground but acts with cut, goes well for Joe Fanning and has form at stiff venues Pontefract and Beverley.
16:00 Pontefract - Lay Let's Go
This would have been a completely obvious chance to put up as a win selection; a fast progressing Godolphin horse that steps up in grade to Listed company. He trounced his rivals last time by nine lengths at Wolverhampton and comes from the Saeed bin Suroor yard - that has won this three times since 2007 - one with stalwart Rio De La Plata.
What's not to like? Well the price, at 2.206/5.
This is a pretty decent race with the likes of David O'Meara's tag team of Birdman, Mondialiste and Hail The Hero. I hope they all turn up. 2013 winner Fire Ship is also here trying to wrestle his crown back. So the favourite will have to be good, having been raised 19lb by the handicapper.
Why am I against Let's Go? Of course it's a price thing, and there's every chance we can get him shorter In-Play. Possibly it could have been a case of getting first run in winning by such a long way recently, and the calibre of horse he tackles here will be vastly superior.
If we can get anything near 6/4 on this horse, we are doing well. He was 5/4 on the Sportsbook on Saturday evening, and I'm not sure that will last as I had him down nearer 4/6.
This doesn't look a great maiden, Ejbaar is the most exposed runner with four efforts, and has an official rating of 70 - so he looks beatable. whilst American Hustle has been beaten a combined 22 lengths in two outings - and those are the two dangers.
Ad Dabaran comes from the Charlie Appleby yard, and if he were a juvenile I would probably swerve him. But he's by top stallion Dubawi - plus the dam side makes for interesting reading.
Allure has produced three runners, two have won. And both of those were unraced as juveniles (the same as Ad Dabaran) winning at three. And if he's got any talent, he really ought to beat this lot.
Sunday's Recommended Bets
Back-to-lay Arizona John in the 15:50 at Carlisle
Lay Let's Go @ 1.804/5 in-running in the 16:00 at Pontefract
Back Ad Dabaran @ 5/4 in the 17:10 at Pontefract (price on Sportsbook)
Weekly P /L (one point each bet excluding advised in-running trades)
Previous seven day P/L + 3.98
Total: + 19.70