Alan Dudman is hoping to sign off his tipping week with a winner at Royal Ascot on Thursday, and has flagged up three big-priced runners that could be worth a wager...
"As a 31.030/1 shot, the chance to trade him six or seven points shorter than that should be fairly realistic, and hopefully we can lock in a free bet."
15:40 Ascot - Back Gretchen
John Gosden's Gretchen landed a Newmarket maiden on her debut, and she heads straight for the Group 2 Ribblesdale on Thursday - a route identical to 2013 winner of this race Riposte.
She looked above average winning at HQ, and her trainer described her as a sweet filly. It's encouraging she has been immediately stepped up in class (and she also holds an Irish Oaks entry).
Whilst Pleascach will be very popular in the market following her Irish 1,000 Guineas success, the fillies' races can throw up surprising results on a consistent basis - yesterday's Duke of Cambridge Stakes produced a 25/1 shock for example - I'm prepared to throw a couple of quid at Gretchen considering she is trading at 10.09/1.
I do like the staying races, and I cannot resist getting involved in the feature on Ladies' Day - The Gold Cup.
I'm backing Trip To Paris here at 10/1 on the Sportsbook (this is also a promo race), despite Ed Dunlop's inmate being behind Vent De Force in Sandown's Henry II last time out. The selection didn't have the race run to suit, and Richard Hughes was brilliant from the front that evening, controlling matters all the way around the Esher venue.
Even though Trip To Paris has a turn of pace for a stayer, he could have done with a sterner tempo - and he'll get that here. The horse is massively on the upgrade having improved nearly 20lbs already this season. He did win the Chester Cup and I'm fairly hopeful he will not fail for stamina.
I would like his trainer to be in slightly better form, but we can't have everything. And we're due a change of luck after drawing a blank yesterday.
17:00 Ascot - Back to lay Malaf
With a field of 30 going to post at the time of writing for the Britannia, it goes without saying this isn't easy. But skipping down the John Gosden route again, the price on Malaf is too tempting.
As a 31.030/1 shot, the chance to trade him six or seven points shorter than that should be fairly realistic, and hopefully we can lock in a free bet.
A wide margin winner of a race at Wolverhampton by seven lengths is a million miles away from this, but he could be a big improver. He's gone up 13lbs for that victory and the cheekpieces are retained here (having worn them for the first time at Dunstall Park).
I'm open minded about the draw, although those drawn high are favoured looking at the prices. It will be fairly predictable about the field splitting into two groups and it's a flyer, but worth a dart at healthy odds. The exchange also has a '6 places market' too.
Thursday's Recommended Bets
Back Gretchen @ 10.09/1 in the 15:40 at Ascot
Back Trip To Paris @ 10/1 in the 16:20 at Ascot (price on Sportsbook and promo race)
Back Malaf @ 31.030/1 and lay back stake at 26.025/1 in-running in the 17:00 at Ascot
Weekly P /L (one point each bet excluding advised in-running trades)
Previous seven day P/L + 3.53
Total: +7.92 pts