Events / Graham Cunningham / 16 January 2009 /

The Victor Chandler Chase looks pretty simple while Haydock's Peter Marsh is a real conundrum, but Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham has found a solid contender in one of Ascot's novice chases.

Can Master Minded possibly be beaten? Is Haydock's Peter Marsh Chase a solvable problem? What has darts got that racing hasn't? And should Man City fans feel dread or delight at the influx of untold Arab millions? These and other questions have been keeping RUK analyst Graham Cunningham occupied as another big weekend of racing looms large.

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Master Minded to be awarded the VC in Ascot anti climax

Victor isn't happy, whereas Paul is delighted.

Time may well show that Saturday's Victor Chandler Chase eventually reverts to its former status as a handicap, but for the moment it remains as a level weights Grade 1 contest which looks at the mercy of Master Minded.

Clearly, messrs Chandler and Nicholls both have powerful vested interests as regards the Ascot showpiece. Chandler is understandably frustrated at putting up significant prize money for a race which will have precious little interest to the betting public, while Nicholls is naturally keen to see his champion chaser have as easy a time as possible on the road back to the Cheltenham Festival.

For the record, I fall firmly into the Chandler camp for the simple reason that the VC has served up some spellbinding clashes in its guise as a handicap.

Old timers will always point to the epic duel between Desert Orchid and Panto Prince, but the duels between Well Chief and Thisthatandtother in 2005 and Isio and Azertyuiop in 2004 show also prove that fireworks can result when a real top notcher is asked to test his mettle giving lumps of weight to high-class handicappers.

But for now, the VC is a recipe for a small field with an odds-on favourite. Nicholls will need no reminding that Twist Magic was turned over at [1.8] last year. But it will come as a huge shock if the money buyers come a cropper this time around.

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Cloudy forecast for a murky Peter Marsh

If Ascot's feature event looks all too predictable then Haydock's main event has the look of what Sherlock Holmes used to call "a three pipe problem."

Sadly, after an hour wrestling with the Peter Marsh Chase I'm still no closer to a Holmes-style Eureka moment.

Miko de Beauchene looks likely to find three miles too sharp, while Montgermont remains an erratic jumper and Opera Mundi and Glasker Mill both tend to mix promising efforts with distinctly flat ones.

Last year's winner Kandjar D'Allier is vulnerable to less exposed rivals after being hiked 8lb for his latest win here, which leaves us with Dear Villez and Cloudy Lane.

Dear Villez ran a fine race with no excuses when fourth in the Hennessy and has McCoy aboard for the first time, while Donald McCain's stable star Cloudy Lane boasts a fine Haydock record and has gradually found his form this season.

On balance, you would have to push me pretty hard to make me have a bet in this. However, Cloudy Lane gets a narrow vote. His stable were in blinding form before the freeze and those who back him each way can expect a solid run for their money.

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Right, then. If Master Minded is too skinny a price and the Peter Marsh is bordering on impossible then there must be one race which falls somewhere in the middle with a horse to pay the weekend expenses.

Step forward Calgary Bay, who bids to take another step on the road to Cheltenham when he lines up for Ascot's Lightning Novices' Chase at 1.40.

Granted, Henrietta Knight's gelding has something to find with the trailblazing Free World, who stamped himself as one of the best two mile novices around when pipped by Araldur in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown.

However, Free World ended up having a hard race there and, even though he has to concede 6lb to his main rival, Calgary Bay could prove the value option.

AP McCoy described this handsome six-year-old as "the most athletic big horse I've ever ridden" after his impressive success in a Grade 2 contest at Cheltenham. His jumping combined accuracy and aggression in striking fashion there and the way he travelled through the race suggests this shorter trip shouldn't trouble him in the slightest.

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