Events / Wayne Bailey / 15 January 2009 /

Paul Nicholls' Champion Chaser runs at Ascot on Saturday, so what's Wayne Baileys take on the race?

When the weekend racing involves Master Minded - the highest rated national hunt horse in training, it's difficult to be original and I'm not going to win the tipster of the year award for giving him the thumbs up. At the time of writing, Paul Nicholls' six-year-old superstar is trading at [1.3] on Betfair so no-one is going to become a millionaire by backing him. But is there any point in opposing?

To be honest, I don't think so, and if I were chalking this race up, I'd have the gelding as low as [1.2]. There are no certainties in racing of course and it's worth remembering that Master Minded fell at the first on his British debut at Exeter just over a year ago, having gone off at a Betfair SP of [1.67].

The only blotch on his record since is the one where the Ditcheat team got the tactics wrong, and he ended up coming second to Voy Por Ustedes in the John Smith´s Melling Chase at Aintree last April. Lessons were learned and it seems that the 2m4f trip was a bit on the long side too. Last time out at Sandown, he cemented his reputation as the best in the business, despite having to avoid the loose horse for a good deal of the race.

According to the market, Petit Robin is the main danger and Nicky Henderson knows what he's up against but remains fairly positive and will give it his best shot: "Master Minded is obviously going to be very tough to beat but we have got to go somewhere and it's good prize-money, so at least a few of us are going to try and make a race out of it."

The Desert Orchid Chase was a big step up in class and the six-year-old performed reasonably well, but he simply couldn't capitalise on Fiepes Shuffle's jumping mistakes and only managed to come second to that horse. With four wins from six races, Petit Robin is a very decent horse, but [8.0] offers little value and I think his price should definitely be a few ticks higher.

David Pipe's Or Noir De Somoza is interesting at [12.0]. Pipe won this race last year with Tamarinbleu, but Pond House have had a bad winter, with just five winners from 59 races since December. Three of those were in January however, so things may be looking up. French racing fans will respect this horse, and the seven-year-old has won 13 races out of 20 career starts - however it's difficult to know how his form will compare when he races on British soil, and it's a horse best watched for now.

When a horse is as short as [1.3] my gut instinct is to try to pick holes in the form and find a reason to click pink. In this case however, the only option is to stick with Master Minded and it seems pointless opposing him.

Even if you don't bet at those prices, you should still get enjoyment taking a watching brief so let's hope we're not disappointed with Saturday's big race. I'll be over in England this weekend, so I'm looking forward to visiting Ascot for the first time and watching the star himself in action.

Elsewhere at Haydock, I'd expect Nick Gifford's Dee Ee Williams to run a big race in the Blue Square Novices' Hurdle. He's lightly raced, but is rarely out of the frame and early prices of around [3.5] seem quite generous. The yard are happy with his work at home and this will be a significant trial for the six-year-old on the road to Cheltenham.

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