Events / Graham Cunningham / 17 August 2009 /

The old saying goes that Fate is a dramatist who gets his best effects with a small cast. And let's hope that is the case at York this Tuesday when the mighty Sea The Stars attempts to continue his domination of the 2009 Flat season in the International Stakes. Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham rates the big race as one for the purist rather than the punter but pinpoints a range of back and lay angles on the rest of a cracking day one card.

1.45

Pace: Should be strong with Strike Up The Band, Captain Dunne, Peak District and Aegean Dancer all set to go hard from an early stage.

Draw: Jockeys seem intent on racing up the centre here of late, so those drawn very low or very high could be at a slight disadvantage.

Positives: Hamish McGonagall is reliable, goes well here and lines up after several fine runs in similar company. His chance is very solid, while Buachaill Dona was given plenty to do by his Japanese rider at Ascot and should go well with Nicholls back aboard.
And don't rule out a big run from Indian Trail, a smooth travelling hold-up horse with the potential to trade much shorter than his current long odds in the run.

Negatives: Wi Dud hasn't won since his 2006 Flying Childers win here but is still rated 105. Stall one is an added concern, while Brave Prospector finished seventh in the Stewards' Cup but got so far behind early on as to suggest he may well have been sulking badly. In short, he's another with place lay potential.

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2.15

Pace: hard to be adamant given the lack of strong evidence, but Sea Lord went from the front at Ascot and may well do so again.

Draw: Most unlikely to be a major factor.

Positives: Frankie has chosen Poet's Voice ahead of Vale of York and I think he's right. Indeed, Poet's Voice created a striking impression in thrashing a progressive winner at Newmarket and to my mind he's a Group race juvenile waiting to happen.
Mata Keranjang has a great chance on the figures based on his Vintage Stakes second at Goodwood, but I suspect that wasn't a great race by Group 2 standards and he might find one too good again here. Party Doctor remains a maiden, but two runs in smart company at Ascot suggest he will be a live place candidate again.

Negatives: Elusive Pimpernel forged clear of Poet's Voice and Emerald Commander at Newmarket, but has he improved as much in the interim?
He's too dangerous a prospect to consider laying, but I might just consider opposing Sea Lord and Planet Red for small stakes in the place market.
Sea Lord beat subsequent winners at Ascot but will find this tougher, while Planet Red had to graft hard for his Windsor win and simply didn't look like the type to be winning a race like this on his next start.

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2.50

Pace: Unlikely to be that strong, in which case Frankie could take the initiative aboard Mastery.

Positives: What's not to like about Harbinger? He's taken a big step forward with each of his three runs and looked and travelled like a potential Group 1 colt at Goodwood. In short, he has to be favourite.
Alwaary is the clear pick on official ratings, and he ran a fine race in the King George, but is he improving as fast as Harbinger? On balance, I doubt it.
Mastery is the one for those who like to back at big odds with a view to trading out at around half the price. Granted, he has a 3lb penalty for his Italian Derby win, but he recorded another career best in France last time and it's far from impossible that he will get a softish lead here.

Negatives: I could be wrong, but Father Time appeals as a place lay here. Yes. He bolted clear in the King Edward VII Stakest at Royal Ascot, but he relished being held up in a truly-run race there and this looks set to be more tactical.
In addition, he has a penalty against more progressive rivals now and on more than one occasion he's looked somewhat brittle when asked to quicken off a steady gallop. In summary, if he wins - or finishes second - then I'll be paying out.

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3.25

Pace: Coolmore plainly hold the key, with Set Sail and Georgebernardshaw assigned to set the right fractions for Mastercraftsman and Sea The Stars likely to be settled in fourth. It could get messy, with gaps between the leaders and Kinane stalking Murtagh.

Conclusion: The withdrawal of Tartan Bearer means one of Britain's premier races doesn't have a single British runner and it's plainly a case of whether Mastercraftsman can draw the sting from Sea The Stars once his domestiques have done their jobs.
The bottom line is that the favourite finished over four lengths ahead of Mastercraftsman in the 2,000 Guineas. It should be closer this time. But, unless Sea The Stars has an off day, he should land the odds in decisive fashion again.

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