Tony Calvin believes Enable is a fair price to win her third consecutive Arc, but our man doesn't play at those odds so instead he has a pair of double-figure price bets later on the card...
"As it stands, that 1/2 -length second to the subsequent Vermeille winner Star Catcher was clearly a top-notch effort and I am willing to ignore doubts about her at the price."
It's a rather curious running order for Longchamp on Sunday, with the Arc appearing very early as the fourth race on the card and an Arabian contest being part of ITV's coverage beforehand.
No doubt the sponsors - and maybe the late-night Japanese audience - had something to do with that dog's dinner of a line-up, but that's modern-day racing for you.
However, the course would probably have been better off shifting the Arc to race number three and having the Arabian nonsense on afterwards, so at least the media could have focused on the aftermath of the big one without missing a proper race.
Anyway, we will cover all the whole card here, to varying degrees, though I must admit nothing major jumped out at me as a premier bet, largely due to where my duo were drawn.
Enable a fair price but it's a no-bet race for me
I said in a couple of ante-post pieces earlier in the week that I think Enable is more of 2s-on chance than her current price of between 4/5 and 8/11 in the Arc.
So while I clearly don't bet or tip at those prices myself, I am not going to say she isn't a fair price. That also means that I think pretty much everything else is undercooked on the win market, and of questionable value on the each-way front, against her.
Unfortunately, there is no meaningful liquidity in the "without favourite" market at the time of writing, too - it will come, but the money only tends to arrive on the day in these secondary exchange markets - so there is no avenue open to me there, either.
In truth, the more I look at the race the more it appears one of those contests that bookmakers detest, anyway.
Namely, one of the watch-and-no-bet variety. And, Japan aside - I have never been convinced by him, two Group 1 wins or not - I could easily make a case for any of the next four in the betting following Enable home.
So, apologies for being of no use whatsoever as regards the Arc, but you have to be straight with your readership.
If pushed, I would side with either Magical or Waldgeist without Enable, with a lean for the latter.
Wide draw a negative but Fleeting looks overpriced
I don't have any betting opinion in the opening brace of 2yo Group 1 races, the Boussac and Lagardere - they could both fall to Andre Fabre in the shape of the favourites Savarin and Victor Ludorum - but I do think the jolly is opposable in the Prix de l'Opera at 15:55 once ITV has gone off air.
Don't get me wrong, Mehdaayih is much the likeliest winner following her second in the Nassau last time and she will probably handle the ground. But she is sub-2/1 and she doesn't have that much in hand of this field.
Fleeting is drawn 12 or 12, and that is clearly a negative, but I do think that the market has over-reacted and she rates a bet at [15.0] or bigger.
Connections apparently are of the opinion that she may not truly stay 1m4f - more of that in a minute - so maybe we will see a more forcing ride on her, stepping down to 1m2f here, albeit that wide berth is a bit of a pain.
She undoubtedly has better form claims than her double-figure odds suggest though, as she was unfortunate not to finish a bit closer when third in the Oaks and she may well have reeled in Star Catcher in the Irish version, on soft ground, afterwards had she been ridden closer to the pace-setter.
As it stands, that 1/2 -length second to the subsequent Vermeille winner Star Catcher was clearly a top-notch effort and I am willing to ignore doubts about her at the price.
In fact, she ran in Star Catcher's Vermeille, and was beaten 2 lengths into fifth, and she shaped as though the step down to this 1m2f trip was definitely worth chancing there. She does get 1m4f, obviously, but maybe stepping down 2f will bring out the best in her.
A high, wide and handsome run to land some dosh
I am not in any mad rush to oppose Battaash in the Abbaye, for all he is not the type of horse I would be the first in the queue to back at odds-on, and then we are left with the final Group 1 of the day to round off in the shape of the Foret in the 17:05.
Back Waldfpad at 11/1 each way, four places, with the Betfair Sportsbook, as he just got the nod in front of last year's winner One Master.
I know that Waldfpad is hardly ideally housed in 10 of 12 but, again, I am willing to take a risk at the price.
An impressive Newbury winner from Khaadem in July, he returned to that level of form when a strong-finishing third in the Sprint Cup at Haydock last time on soft ground.
This longer trip of 7f holds no fears for him, and hopefully he will be coming high, wide and handsome on the outside in the closing stages.
So put the "Oi Ois" on ice.
Back Fleeting at [15.0] or bigger in 15:55 at Longchamp
Back Waldpfad at 11/1 each way, four places, Betfair Sportsbook in 17:05 at Longchamp