Newbury Betting: I'm doing the unthinkable with a lay of Inglis...
Events
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Graham Cunningham /
30 November 2007 /
3
Graham Cunningham wraps up the coming weekend's racing highlights...
Kauto gives his Betfair Chase rivals the brush off at new look Haydock
The sorcerer was casting his spell again at Haydock last weekend.
And now it is the turn of his apprentice to try and weave some magic under a massive weight in Newbury's Hennessy Gold Cup. But before we turn to Denman's prospects, a few reflections on Kauto Star's return to prominence in the Betfair Chase.
Firstly, it's clear that Haydock is no longer the daunting test of a chaser it used to be since the old black birch fences were ditched in favour of portable equivalents.
Some call it progress, while others will almost certainly call it something a lot less flattering once it becomes clear that the tight inner track is taking a pounding by having chases, hurdles and bumpers run on the same turf month in month out.
And then we have the fences. It goes against the grain to argue in favour of more punishing obstacles after the recent spate of fatalities, but top-class chasers ought to be tested over sterner obstacles than the glorified brush hurdles which were eventually wheeled on to the track on Saturday.
One seasoned commentator who watched events unfold on television from afar said "it was like looking at jumping from Southwell." And, with only a little disrespect intended to that popular venue, that's just not what top-flight races like the Betfair Chase are meant to look like.
Demon has that "BTL" look as King George showdown looms
Rant over, it's time to focus on whether Kauto Star can be beaten in the King George.
The Independent's Chris McGrath, who will be named racing journalist of the year at Monday's Derby Awards if there is any justice in the world, feels that any offers of evens are "suspiciously like a minting machine."
Bold master McGrath will probably find slightly longer odds if he logs on to Betfair, but rather than steam in short with over three weeks to go why not consider RACING DEMON as a seductive big priced back to lay opportunity?
Granted, Henrietta Knight's gelding is held by Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer on last year's Kempton form, but he ran a screamer for third that day and looked as good as ever by tapping home an open goal in Huntingdon's Peterborough Chase.
In short, the cute call is to snap up some 14-1 each way with the fixed odds firms.
The 7-2 a place for those going a quarter of the odds will look a cracking price if the field cuts up - which it might well do - and Racing Demon is the sort of strong traveller who will trade at much shorter than 14 in running if he brings his "A" game to Kempton again on Boxing Day.
Weight stops trains - but will it stop Denman?
Hands up if you can name the horse who prevented Denman from lining up with a perfect 10 from 10 record at Newbury this weekend?
Dunce hats and a whack with the ruler for those who failed to identify Nicanor as the nag who beat the Hennessy favourite in the SunAlliance Hurdle of 2006.
But gold stars and five house points for anyone who can pinpoint exactly how this hulking chestnut will fare when he bids to hump 11st 12lb to victory in the Hennessy.
Paul Nicholls is adamant that Denman will come on for the run - so he will need to be a hell of a horse to win a Hennessy first time out off an official mark of 161 on what could be very holding ground - but his massive raw ability is such that I certainly won't be laying him.
But that isn't to say there isn't an edge to be found, and mine will hopefully come from a back of Snowy Morning and a small lay of Abragante.
Snowy Morning has three big things in his favour. Firstly, AP McCoy has chosen him ahead of Abragante. Secondly, he has been trained specifically for this by Willie Mullins, who has unfinished Hennessy business given that Be My Royal lost the race due to a positive sample.
And thirdly, and most importantly, Snowy Morning has an 18lb pull having finished 10 lengths behind Denman in Cheltenham's SunAlliance Chase. He "hasn't crept in under the radar" according to BHA handicapper Phil Smith. Maybe he hasn't, but he's flying dangerously low in the handicap given for a horse whose form has been boosted numerous times of late.
With Timmy Murphy banned and McCoy opting for Snowy Morning, the bang-in-form Davy Russell steps in for the mount aboard Abragante.
Wait, wait then wait again will be Russell's orders aboard this very strong traveller. His running style will make for some fascinating in-play action, but Abragante has been hiked up 14lb for his cosy Wincanton win and I will pay up with a smile if he can follow up in this infinitely stronger contest.
New season, same target - but is Dennis the man for Inglis Drever?
Laying the best staying hurdler around carries the inherent risk of looking a little foolish and ending up a fair bit poorer. No matter, I will be taking on Inglis Drever when he bids to land Newbury's Long Distance Hurdle for the third year running.
Why so? Firstly, Howard Johnson's gelding will be carrying a Grade 1 penalty against a fine field when the tapes go up at 14:05 on Saturday. And secondly, because I have nagging doubts as to whether the dual World Hurdle winner's new rider will suit him ideally.
Graham Lee plainly got the best out of Inglis Drever in his early hurdling days, while Paddy Brennan's dynamism saw him thrive again at Cheltenham last March. But new rider Denis O'Regan relies much more on poise and balance than Lee or Brennan.
Perhaps his quieter style will help Inglis Drever travel more fluently than normal. However, that seems odds against and, for better of for worse, I will be hoping that this high-class gelding's tendency to run lazily in what could be a tactical affair costs him dear on his return from a break.
*Special Envoy a possible cure for the madness of King Paddy
You have to warm to any rider who kicks off an interview by saying "I'm not a lunatic."
And, for all that there are probably a few people who might beg to differ, Paddy Merrigan stands on the threshold of what could be a real springboard weekend in his career.
Merrigan has packed plenty into the last few years. Several changes of stables suggest that he hasn't always been easy to handle. There was also a curious incident in which a gun was discharged during his time with Heather Dalton, while his feisty nature reared its head again when Special Envoy crashed out at the last with a £100,000 Betfair-sponsored Haydock hurdle at his mercy last Saturday.
Merrigan promptly hurled his crash helmet 20 metres into the infield, but the hungry Irishman might just be in more positive mood when Special Envoy makes a quick reappearance against Inglis Drever and company.
In short, Peter Bowen's gelding showed vastly improved form on his debut over three miles at Haydock. He's a smooth traveller with a good turn of foot and those who back him at [8] or bigger on Betfair might well be able to lay him back at half those odds or shorter early in the home straight if his Haydock tumble hasn't left its mark.
Cunningham's Hennessy weekend wagers:
Back Snowy Morning.
Lay Abragante.
Back Special Envoy and look to lay at 4 in running.
Lay Inglis Drever.
Wizard of Odds | 01 December 2007
New Alco in the Hennessy to lay then play in running is also worth considering. Graham Lee is a great judge of pace and I am sure he will nurse this youngster to see out the trip. Forget he made all last time over a much shorter trip. He has come from well off the pace over this trip before. L'Antartique touched 16s in running during the Paddy Power a couple of weeks ago and the patient amongst stand to be rewarded tomorrow - win or lose.
redd | 01 December 2007
Follow this guys advice at your peril ! !
Laying @ 7.8 is not a good idea.
Bernard B | 01 December 2007
Get in Inglis Drever! The more your "expert" Mr Cunningham is negative about good things, the better the price for us punters. Special Envoy I think is still running:-)