Events / Ian Dean / 04 February 2009 /

Ian Dean gets stuck into the formbook as he searches for the clues to solve Saturday's big handicap hurdle puzzle.

With a sidestep that would have made his boyhood hero Phil Bennett proud, Rowley has swerved the Arctic blast for sunnier climes, leaving me staring out on a rather bleak picture for racing over the next few days.

The weather is threatening to turn the formality of Tony McCoy riding his 3000th winner into something of a media-led saga. Let's hope it relents before we are all (Thommo excluded) as bored by it as the man himself, and also in time to save Newbury's Totesport Trophy meeting, prospects for which are reportedly no better than 50-50 at the time of writing - though Betfair layers are happy to offer you [1.88] that racing will go ahead on Saturday.

Denmania will dominate if racing goes ahead, but it's the big handicap hurdle that will be the centre of my attention. Not that I have a record to thrill you with in this particular contest - in fact, Decoupage was my last payday and that wasn't even this century. However, in recent years the Totesport Trophy has been a rich source of big-race winners for those inclined to pace analysis.

First to spring to mind is the 2002 renewal, in which the always-prominent Copeland led home just 12 finishers in a less hectic affair than usual. The runner-up Rooster Booster went into the proverbial notebook, scything through the field from the rear and finishing nine lengths clear of the rest. Despite earning the unlikely Raceform comment that he was 'in the grip of the handicapper', Rooster Booster duly landed the County Hurdle on his next outing before going on to greatness the following season.

A bigger field failed to provide a stronger gallop in 2005, so it was again runners making ground late that were of interest. Chief amongst them was the Irish raider Al Eile, who came from another postcode to grab third behind the more positively-ridden Essex. Al Eile would be gaining the first of 3 Grade 1 Aintree Hurdles within a couple of months.

The 25 that had gone to post the previous year had ensured a more frenetic tempo, so those that raced close to the heat came under the microscope. Geos swooped late for a second victory in the race, but the eye was drawn to Monkerhostin in third, keeping on surprisingly well given he'd been to the fore throughout. Monkerhostin confirmed the positive impression he'd created by taking both the Rendlesham Hurdle and Coral Cup shortly after.

Incidentally, it's been great to see old Monkerhostin still mixing it off marks in the mid-150s this winter, a campaign that has seen him turn 12. If only he had got past Kicking King a stride or two sooner in the King George the other year when supported on Betfair at [29.0], he would have to rank as my favourite active racehorse. As it was, his narrow defeat RUINED XMAS and there can be no greater crime (only joking, Monk).

Back to Saturday's feature, conditions are more than likely to be taxing, so it's not hard to see why Numide ([7.4]) has been made a solid market leader. This classy ex-French gelding will be in his element in the Berkshire mud, and a last-flight blunder behind Sentry Duty at Ascot in December was a blessing in disguise as far as his weight in this is concerned. His trainer Gary Moore will be mentioned in the same breath as handicap legend Ryan Price if he can pull this off for a third year running.

Philip Hobbs' has a strong hand with Belcantista ([7.8]) and the mare Presenting Copper ([9.6]). The former, in particular, has concrete claims and will be hard to keep out of the money, whilst at juicier odds the keen-going novice Dee Ee Williams ([60.0]) should be well served by a truer gallop, provided he doesn't pull his chance away in the gluepot conditions.

But whatever the outcome, the advice is to follow the horse that has excelled in adversity. If the pace is strong, latch on to whoever does best after racing to the fore. If they go gingerly in the testing conditions, be sure to note the runner making significant inroads from the rear. Either way, there's a good chance their turn is not far away.

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