Events / Jake Norton / 29 October 2008 /

Crikey mates! It's all looking a bit negative down under. Jake Norton of betting.betfair Australian arm says no horse trained or bred in Australia will ever win another Melbourne Cup.

You may detect just a hint of cynicism in this statement, but seriously, unless something drastic is done about the way our horses are bred, reared and trained, there is a fair bit of truth in it.

Just six days remain until the 2008 Melbourne Cup, and nine of yesterday's 39 third declarations are visitors from the Continent. And to say that the vast majority (if not all) of these are better suited to staying two miles than the thirty-odd motley locals still in it certainly wouldn't be the most ridiculous thing ever uttered.

Even one of these northern raiders of which we speak - the mare, Varavees - is French. Can you imagine bidding au revoir to our wonderful, time-honoured, tri-handled trophy as it is stuffed into cargo headed to Paris? Sacré bleu! The mind boggles.

But this is a stark reality we antipodeans must face.

The world-renowned and respected racehorse assessors at Timeform credit Septimus with being the 11th best horse in the world, with a rating of 130. Granted, our own equine pin-up boy Weekend Hussler has been granted the same rating, but with all due respect to the Hussler, he gets wonky at the prospect of racing any distance further than a mile (better suited to the Golden Slipper perhaps).

Of the local contingent contesting the Cup, Zipping has the highest rating: 126, accompanied with a question mark (truthfully and officially!). Please don't get your knickers in a twist; Zipping is a bold animal and has on many occasions knocked on the Group 1 door, albeit without actually entering the building. He's also had two cracks at staying two miles, and run extremely creditably - but importantly, floundered in the final furlong each time.

There is of course the more-than-reasonable argument that his stable mate and 2007 victor Efficient can actually stay. Fair enough. All things being equal though, he can't beat Septimus.

Septimus's Timeform rating of 130 (pounds) equates to a smidgin over 59kg. Efficient's - 120, by contrast - equates to a bit over 54.5 on the metric scale. Septimus has been asked to carry 58.5kg in the Cup (he's previously carried as much as 63.5kg to victory over distances as long as 2800m, incidentally); Efficient, 58kg.

So with the fact that Efficient is one of the very few Australian horses who can actually stay two miles in mind, Septimus looks a weight certainty.

Further to this, Europeans (All The Good and Mad Rush in the Caulfield Cup, Bauer in the Geelong Cup) have taken the traditional Cup lead-ups by the scruff of their proverbial necks. Ask any European, and they will tell you that these two-bit nags aren't in the same stratosphere as king Septimus. In fact, many would say that another of Septimus's stable mates - 2007 placegetter Mahler - shouldn't even rightfully stand in the same paddock as the bay stallion. Timeform won't argue either.

Nationalists and/or blind optimists alike may shudder when reading this, but it is a reality that simply must be faced. Should Septimus acclimatise to the conditions and be granted the tempo in the race (from his chums Honolulu and Alessandro Volta, perhaps?) he deserves, he should win.

He can still be backed at [5.1] in Betfair's Melbourne Cup ante post market. In a week's time, as the Cup heads north, this may well be proven a wise investment.

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