Events / Wayne Bailey / 30 October 2008 /

Backers have been slow to take the short odds on offer, but Kauto Star is head and shoulders above Saturday's rivals, writes Wayne Bailey...

OK, so I'm not going to win any tipping awards if I suggest backing Kauto Star this Saturday at Down Royal, but can he really be opposed?

Bookmakers are taking a cautious approach and some have chalked him in as short as [1.44], but as yet, there's been no heavy punting on the Paul Nicholls eight year old on Betfair; and he still trades around the [1.6] mark.

So why is there a lack of early support on the exchanges? Well, stamped into the backers' memory is Cheltenham 2008. We realised that our Star was not a machine, but merely a vulnerable four-legged animal - and Denman emerged as the new shining light. But even closer in the memory will be Aintree, where Kauto Star still managed to get beaten, despite trading as low as [1.07] in-running. Had you done your brains on that one, it's easy to see why you'd shy away from Saturday's market.

However, we still need to get some perspective of his chances in Ireland, and despite being beaten last time out, Kauto Star still looks bombproof to me at Down Royal. Before we look at the race itself, let's have a look at something I mentioned in Tuesday's article - that is, the record of Paul Nicholls in Ireland.

He's been incredibly successful overall, but when he teams up with Ruby Walsh, it really gets interesting. Let's just have a look at how each of the pairs' horses performed when in Ireland over the last few years:

• 1st May 2003: Sporazene - Won
• 1st May 2003: Le Roi Migue - Won
• 25th April 2007: Neptune Collonges - Won
• 1st August 2007: Hoo La Baloo - Brought Down
• 3rd November 2007: Taranis - Won
• 28th December 2007: Denman - Won
• 22nd April 2008: Twist Magic - Won
• 23rd April 2008: Neptune Collonges - Won
• 30th July 2008: Oslot - Won
• 12th October 2008: Dear Villez - Won

Spot anything?!

It's clear that when Nicholls wants to raid a prize in Ireland, Ruby is the man to do it for him.

I haven't even mentioned the opposition as yet, so I'd better take a quick look at the two main challengers:

Snowy Morning
He ran a very decent third in the Aintree Grand National, and followed up with a cracking second in the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup back in April. He's made mistakes when jumping before, but Mullins feels that this is a good starting point for the season, and it's no secret that he'll be aimed at Aintree again this year. He has solid place claims, but a win looks unlikely.

The Listener
There's something about this gelding that I just can't trust. He'll run up a string of wins then either fall, or run a stinker next time out. When he's good, he's good, but he's prone to mistakes in-running and it's hard to have full confidence. That said, those who oppose Kauto Star will be looking for an alternative, and The Listener is the obvious second choice.

Conclusion: Any time I see an odds-on favourite, my instinct is to find reasons to oppose it. However, in this case it's just proving too difficult to oppose Kauto Star. If I were laying, I'd have him at [1.4] so on that reckoning, his current price looks pretty tempting indeed.

Advice: Back Kauto Star at [1.6] or higher.

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As usual, we welcome your thoughts and tips, so feel free to make a post below.

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