Events / Jack Houghton / 05 September 2009 /

Bettor extraordinaire Jack Houghton is against England dominance at Wembley and with the favourite at Leopardstown...

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

My mind has been occupied with questions of great import this week. Is the new live audition format good for the X-Factor? Isn't compassion always preferred, no matter what the political ramifications? Is it wrong to donate a once-used sex toy to a charity shop?

Time for such cerebral musings was short however, with an expectant public awaiting the next instalment of the Betting Challenge. Buoyed by Delegator's facile win at Goodwood last week - and Federer's inexorable progress through the early rounds at Flushing Meadows - a commuter train-full of readers were eager for another stop on our journey towards certain profitability. And so we call at two stations: the Irish Champion Stakes and England's friendly against Slovenia.

Talking trains... As a boy, travelling cross-country to visit my gran in Anglesey, I always had to change at Crewe. The sum of my time there, waiting for connecting journeys, is marked in my memory with perplexed misery. What could be the point of such a place? How was one to act? What manner of creature could exist in this environment?

It is with a similar feeling of rudderless confusion that I now find myself surveying the markets to find a value bet in England's match against Slovenia. Much time has already been wasted pursuing a line of enquiry based around England beating said opponents 4-0 in a recent meeting. On closer inspection though, it turned out it was Slovakia, not Slovenia, who had received the goal-laden drubbing; and whilst the two countries are geographically and lexically close, they are not the same.

A lot of time has also been spent looking at various methods of rating international football teams. Unfortunately I have no way of interpreting what the numbers mean. England seems to be doing well of late, but then so do Slovenia. And both teams seem to be involved in matches where a lot of goals are scored. England's games have provided three goals or more on nine of the last 12 occasions. That's 75 per cent, which makes the [1.60] available on Over 2.5 goals look generous: but then I'm not sure it really works like that.

So this is where I'm at. In the England Win Both Halves market, I'm having £10 on No at [1.90]. The rationale is that England doesn't seem to be that much better than Slov-thingummy, and given that this is a friendly - where presumably Capello will experiment with team changes in preparation for more serious matters against Croatia midweek - England are unlikely to be dominant throughout.

The Irish Champion Stakes is a more straightforward affair. Much is being made of the chance of Fame And Glory but, as often happens, his supporters are basing their patronage on a false narrative: Fame And Glory would have won at Epsom with a faster pace; he demonstrated this fact when winning the Irish Derby; he will therefore win on Saturday with conditions in his favour.

Leaving aside the obvious logic shortcomings in this argument, it also fails to appreciate Sea The Stars' progression since Epsom. His wins at Sandown and York were the outstanding performances of the year and, whether looking at speed or handicap ratings, Fame And Glory has to find half a stone, and this gulf in proven form isn't reflected in the current prices.

So I'm laying Fame And Glory for £20 at Betfair SP. I'm also backing Mastercraftsman for £10 at Betfair SP. One length behind Sea The Stars at York, he too has a lot in hand on the Ballydoyle first-string and, even if Sea The Stars doesn't run - and at the time of writing his chances are rated as 50-50 - it is Mastercraftsman who I would want to be supporting at the likely prices.

All aboard. Toot toot. Goodbye Crewe: next stop Bangor.

Recommendations:
£10 BACK of No at [1.90] in England Win Both Halves market.
£20 LAY of Fame And Glory at Betfair SP in Irish Champion Stakes.
£10 BACK of Mastercraftsman at Betfair SP in Irish Champion Stakes.

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