Events / Wayne Bailey / 20 May 2008 / 3

Wayne Bailey rates the runners for the Irish 2,000 Guineas which takes place at The Curragh this Saturday

This year's 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket was a classic in all senses of the word. We were all hoping for something special for the 200th renewal, and Johnny Murtagh's perfectly timed ride on Henrythenavigator gave just that...unless of course you backed the 'jolly', New Approach!

It doesn't happen too often, but this Saturday we get the chance to relive it all over again, as both horses look likely to lock horns in the Irish equivalent. Will new tactics be used? Who will make the running? The excitement on this side of the Irish Sea is palpable.

Amid the hype surrounding the top two however, Godolphin have a couple waiting in the wings. They may be receiving criticism for their policy of sending horses to Dubai early in the year, but only a fool would rule them out of this contest. To date, they've had three runners in the Irish 2,000 guineas, and won it twice (the other horse came second).

The action takes place at 3:45 at the Curragh, so here's a look at the likely contenders...

New Approach
Had Henrythenavigator not taken part in the Newmarket classic, New Approach would have won by a mile and be odds-on now for sure. But 'Henry' did take part.

It may be the case that New Approach was simply caught by surprise on the line and if battle commences a bit earlier on in the race, his stamina may see him through. He's a worthy favourite, but his price is too restrictive for me. It's probably worth mentioning Jim Bolger's other entry Luminaire, the unraced colt that was expected to be the pacemaker. Bolger is adamant that he'll be run on his own merits and expects a good race. He said yesterday that he will "be hoping he'll finish in the first four". He's nearly treble figures in the win market [90.0] right now, so come Saturday; there may be some place value if he's as good as expected.

Henrythenavigator
It'll be very interesting to see what tactics are employed here, now that all eyes will be watching. I'm a big admirer of Murtagh, and doubt if a different jockey would have managed to get the same result at Newmarket. He held him up slightly, and one has to wonder just how much Henry would have had in the tank if let go early on.

Ten out of 12 Irish 2,000 Guineas winners had a run in the English or French equivalent last time out, and there's no valid reason he can't follow up. His price seems attractive considering what he's achieved to date.

Jupiter Pluvius
I quite fancied this horse for the English 2,000 Guineas, but he scoped badly and never made the final line-up. The fact that he's an O'Brien horse in an Irish Classic means he automatically warrants attention - however I feel that he may have fallen down the Ballydoyle pecking order somewhat in recent weeks. I wouldn't go as far as suggesting a lay, but because he's not been out since October means that there's a lot of guesswork involved.

Famous Name
With 12 losers, Dermot Weld's record in this race doesn't inspire much confidence. Famous Name won a group three event at Leopardstown in April, but the small field was mediocre, and I feel he's out of his depth. I'll keep an eye on the market, but if he hits [8.0] or lower, I'll be happy to lay.

Ibn Khaldun
His trainers haven't been able to figure out why he flopped at Newmarket, and I'm a little cautious about predicting a comeback here, despite the horse having a great season last year. But considering Godolphin's record in this race, his price seems very generous indeed and the layers may well be caught napping if he can return to form.

Conclusion
New Approach is a top class horse and is likely to go off favourite, but once again, his price is restrictive. It's going to be fascinating to see if Henrythenavigator can frank the form, and I'd be inclined to side with the latter purely based on his Newmarket performance.
Ibn Khaldun has been in fine form at home despite his Newmarket flop, and with his price that high, it's worth having a little saver with small stakes.

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Have we called it right? Perhaps you disagree! Racing is all about opinions so if you have one - make it known and post your thoughts below.

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(3)

1. Stu Bailey | 20 May 2008

   I'm struggling to see why New Approach is shorter than Henrythenavigator. The latter is definitely the value of the two.

   I expect Ibn Khaldun to bounce back soon. You may laugh but when I saw him win the RP Trophy I immediately thought that the race for him was the Eclipse. I think it's because I backed Oratorio for the 2000gs way back when. He then lost a few races before coming up trumps over what was probably his optimal distance in the Eclipse...

2. Wayne Bailey` | 20 May 2008

   I think this is a fascinating contest on a number of levels. As you mentioned, Ibn Khaldun may bounce back soon, and Godolphin take this race very seriously. I'm dying to see what tactics are used with the top two in the market, and wonder who'll be let go first. If it becomes a stamina battle, I think New Approach may be the one to take it, but then again, we've no real idea how much Henrythenavigator actually has in the tank as yet. He certainly seems like good value considering what he's achieved to date. It's also interesting to see Jim Bolger talk up his second string, and he is insistent that he's a great horse and not simply a pacemaker. If reports from training are anything to go by, he could very well land some place money.

   Roll on Saturday for a great day of sport! Racing, football, rugby and er.. Eurovision. What more could a bloke want?

3. Stu Bailey | 22 May 2008

   I've got a mate who's all over the betfair market for the Eurovision contest!

   Interesting that Godolphin have scratched IK from the Irish Guineas. I think they're going to have a bash at the derby. Can't see him getting a mile and a half myself...

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