Glorious Goodwood Day Four Tips: South Seas to go the Golden Mile

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Will Goodwood racegoers be jumping for joy if South Seas lands on Friday?
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We quickly move on to day four of the 2018 Glorious Goodwood Festival, and here with a duo of tips for Friday afternoon is Tony Calvin...

"South Seas has been nibbled at in the betting in recent days- well, more of a sizeable bite - and it is not hard to see why, though he still represents a small interest at [12.0] or bigger, win-only, on the exchange."

Back South Seas [12.0] or bigger in 15:00

Friday's action kicks off with two tricky, seven-runner Group 3s, but we will take the day in chronological order, anyway. We will arrive at the bets soon enough.

The Glorious Stakes at 13:50 may have only attracted a small field but it is packed full of quality.

Eminent would probably be the best of these at his peak and he ran a bit better over a mile at Ascot last time (after two forgettable runs over 1m2f), but this is the first time he has raced over this 1m4f trip since his fourth in the Derby and I can't get excited by his chances.

Course-and-distance winner Mirage Danger and Red Verdon have the more solid recent form, and Second Step is consistent and reliable in this grade - he has course form figures of 312, and that second came in this race last season when chasing home Poet's Word - and I am struggling to find any angle into the contest.

I wouldn't rule out Blakeney Point at 20/1 as he ran well for a long way behind Mirage Dancer here in May and did very well to finish fifth at Haydock last time considering he basically lost his winning chance at the start. He has run well on all four of his starts here, too.

But no bet, and the same applies to the 1m Group 3 race at 14:25 where less than three points split the first five in the betting if you shop around.

I threw a few quid at Threeandfourpence each-way at 33/1 in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, and he duly finished fourth, and maybe he will finally make his winning mark in Group company after scoring in a conditions race at Naas last time.

He is probably the form pick on that Classic form, though he is officially 1lb lower than Threading, who has contested Group 1 races on her last two starts.

This is a race where you could seriously make a case for all seven - though it may be pushing it with Chief Ironside - and there are some positive vibes doing the rounds about Regal Reality, not seen since finishing sixth to Without Parole on his reappearance at Sandown in May.

Two against the field in the Golden Mile

The Golden Mile at 15:00 is much more my cup of tea, and my first of two darts in the race is thrown in the direction of Hors De Combat at 16/1 each-way with the Betfair Sportsbook, which is paying five places.

He can be a frustrating sort and his Meydan success in February was one of only three lifetime wins, the others coming in 2014 and 2013. And he was disappointing in this race two years ago.

But his best effort probably came in the Group 3 on this card in 2014, when just touched off a neck, and the 7yo proved he was no back number just yet when flashing home for sixth in the Hunt Cup last time off this mark.

South Seas has been nibbled at in the betting in recent days- well, more of a sizeable bite - and it is not hard to see why, though he still represents a small interest at [12.0] or bigger, win-only, on the exchange.

He may not be the most robust of horses - this is only the 4yo's 11th start - and he has certainly not been given a hard time of it in three starts this season.

He was a massive eye-catcher, as they say, when staying on under hands and heels riding after meeting trouble from the rear at Sandown last time and that should have teed him up nicely for this.

His mark of 105 is probably lofty enough - in fact, he is due to go down 1lb in future handicaps - but he has the back-class, being an easy Solario winner from Salouen at two, and the Sandown run hinted at an imminent return to peak form.

Both of my selections will need luck from their midfield draws, and hopefully they are pulled wide sooner rather than later. Watching a horse trying to go down the inner has been brutal again this week.

I backed and tipped Shady McCoy last Saturday and he ran much better than it appears at face value, as he was isolated on the far side and that wasn't ideal. He is 2lb well-in here still, but all his best form has come over 7f, so I have to let him go unbacked.

The William Haggas pair of Original Choice, third over 1m2f here on Tuesday, and Seniority have obvious claims towards the head of the market, even if the former would want easier ground.

Favourite likely to blitz rivals in King George

It will take a good one to stop Battaash following up his scintillating win in this race last season, even with his 3lb penalty, in the 15:35. He should blitz these if at his best, and is probably fair at around 5/4 if you like playing at these prices.

Havana Grey has also picked up a 3lb penalty for his recent Group 2 win at the Curragh but he, along with July Cup fifth Sioux Nation, who will be suited by the return to 5f, look the each-way angles against him.

There is a shedload of pace in here, and that could drag old boy Muthmir into the race late on, and I am intrigued by the first-time blinkers angle for him, replacing the usual cheekpieces.

He won this race in 2015 and has certainly not kicked on as expected since, but the different headgear could just concentrate his mind a lot better as he has sometimes looked a bit disinterested.

He has 11lb to find with Battaash on adjusted figures though and, for all that he may outrun his price of around 16/1, you have to think you are playing for places only. I'll pass.

Easy to make a song and dance about Baritone's chances

I have also had a good look at the RUK races and there was nothing doing in the nursery - I Am A Dreamer would be my selection, if pressed - and One Master was the closest I came to for a bet in the fillies' 7f race, the Oak Tree Stakes.

However, one horse shouted at me in the concluding handicap at 17:15 and that was Baritone. I should have said 'sung' or 'serenaded' to me, but I am not that clever.

This three-year-old has the potential to rate a lot higher than his current mark of 82. His half-brothers Stravagante and Stargazer were rated a stone and more higher, and Baritone shaped really well when fourth in a maiden at the Chester May meeting before making his handicap debut over 1m2f at Ascot last time.

He finished third there, beaten two lengths, and has gone up 1lb in the weights, but that could be a generous piece of handicapping.

The unexposed winner gagged up after being backed into 11/8 favouritism, while the runner-up went into the race unbeaten after winning his first two starts.

Baritone also stuck on well really after being switched to the far rail, shaping as this extra furlong or so would suit - as befits a son of a Camelot out of a lightly-raced Musidora runner-up - and the stable won this handicap with no less than Poet's Word two years ago.

I was going to recommend backing him at [5.5] or bigger, but the 9/2 in the marketplace disappeared, then the 4/1 and you will be lucky to get 3/1 soon.

You have to draw the line somewhere, so I can't put him up a bet with the price collapsing as it is.

Minimum Bet Guarantee for ALL races from Galway and Goodwood

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