Events / Graham Cunningham / 10 July 2009 /

Ever felt like the Flat season is swamping you? It's hard to avoid it when there are 39 contests of skill and science to mull over in Britain this Saturday, but Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham has set his mind to solving three of the feature events with Sunday's Irish Oaks at the Curragh thrown in for good measure.

No Nonsense....Sirvino and Albaqaa the value toasts for the John Smith's

It's loud, proud and no place for shrinking violets.

York on Johns Smith's Cup day has always been one of the most raucous events in the northern racing calendar and the 50th renewal of the big race itself is wide open.

So wide open, in fact, that I might be tempted to lay both market leaders. Granted, Kingdom of Fife and Riggins are plainly on the upgrade based on their wins at Redcar and Goodwood, but they've been hiked 9lb and 7lb respectively and taking them on as a pair at combined odds of 3-1 or thereabouts looks a fair starting point.

Finding the value options at longer prices is tough given that so many of the field are in form and closely matched at the weights, but Yorkshire trainers are giving their southern rivals a real run this season and Sirvino and Albaqaa both have plenty to recommend them at double figure odds.

David Barron's Sirvino has gone from strength to strength this season and the way he cruised past horses who have franked the form at Ayr last time suggests that he could still be ahead of the handicapper despite an 8lb hike.

Albaqaa is winless from four attempts this season, but he keeps running fine races in defeat and it's well worth noting that Richard Fahey has won three of the last seven renewals of this historic handicap.

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Warringah looks Extra Smooth to follow up his Windsor romp

Backing Sir Michael Stoute's progressive older horses once they step up in trip has long been a solid system and Warringah looks bound to go well in the John Smith's Silver Cup at 3.45.

A clutch of smart opponents lie in wait, headed by the bang-in-form Furmigadelaguista and backed up by the Northumberland Plate third Friston Forest and last week's gutsy Haydock scorer Quai D'Orsay.

However, Warringah is bred to come into his own over this distance and shaped accordingly when bounding away from some useful handicappers at Windsor two weeks ago.

The handicapper has hiked Warringah 10lb for that. It might not be enough if he comes on for this extra two furlongs in the way I suspect he will.

* * *

Aqlaam can take his revenge on Cesare in Ascot feature

It looks a case of Newmarket against Springbok when Cesare and Aqlaam bid to fend off the challenge of Mike de Kock's South African raider Imbongi in Ascot's totesport.com Summer Mile at 2.50.

Imbongi defied a huge drift in the market to land a Newmarket Group 3 in decisive fashion two weeks ago and de Kock feels he has come on since, while Cesare is a proven Ascot performer who showed himself as good as ever aged eight when chasing home Paco Boy in the Queen Anne Stakes.

However, Cesare ended up with a lot to do when third at 6-4 behind the de Kock-trained Archipenko in this race last year and it could be a similar scenario again given that he's drawn out wide in stall 2.

And with that in mind, Aqlaam looks the value bet. This colt didn't show much in the Lockinge at Newbury after a long break on his reappearance, but William Haggas persevered with him at Group 1 level in the Queen Anne and he ran the race of his life to finish just half a length behind Cesare in third.

He looks straightforward tactically, so trouble in-running looks unlikely, and with just five career starts behind him it could be we have still to see the very best of him.

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Sariska can call time on Midday again in Curragh showdown

The logic of backing Midday to take her revenge on Sariska in Sunday's Irish Oaks at the Curragh is simple enough and revolves around the fact that Henry Cecil's filly was beaten only a head at Epsom despite being slightly checked in the home straight.

Value seekers might also point out that Midday is more than twice the price of Sariska, but in this instance I'm not inclined to go with them.

To my mind, Sariska is probably even better than she showed in galloping to classic glory at Epsom. She certainly travelled like the best filly in the field from a long way out and although it was nip and tuck throughout the final furlong there was never really a point at which Midday looked likely to surge past.

Potential improvers trained by John Oxx and Dermot Weld are always to be feared in the Irish classics and Beauty O' Gwaun and Grace O'Malley are plainly on the upgrade and likely to produce career bests here.

However, Sariska is already proven at this level and I suspect she can land this on the way to a possible tilt at the Yorkshire Oaks on the Knavesmire next month.

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