Dubai World Cup Betting: Well Armed is a handy Nad Al Sheba bet at 12

Events / Jack Houghton / 26 March 2009 / 2

" class="free_bet_btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">

Jack Houghton analyses the contenders for the $6,000,000 Dubai World Cup.

Those who snaffled the [16.0] on Casino Drive in Saturday's Dubai World Cup have a value bet. Currently a [6.4] shot, the price is now too short to recommend him in such a competitive race, but the Japanese raider is still a fascinating contender.

Travelling to the US after only one start - and one win - in Japan, he won two races before entering the Breeders' Cup Classic as a well-fancied 9-1 shot. He led that day, setting quickish fractions, and folded tamely before turning for home. Those were new tactics that day, and with more restraint in a likely fast run race on Saturday, he has the most potential of any horse in the field, and could be a danger.

It's hard to see why Godolphin's challenger, My Indy, is a best priced 10-1 with the fixed odds bookmakers. A more realistic [15.0] on Betfair, even that price looks skinny. Perhaps the Willbrokes crowd know that, given the connections, there'll be support for the horse no matter what the price come Saturday night. That's not to say he's completely without chance. The Argentine import is certainly improving. His win over a mile in the first round of the Al Maktoum Challenge was visually impressive, and read well enough on the clock. However, his scrabbling victory in the second round was less impressive, and he's still more than half a stone or so off the best of his rivals.

The value bet of the race is undoubtedly Well Armed. His form is tied in very closely with the joint favourites, Albertus Maximus and Asiatic Boy, and yet he is four times the price of those rivals.

He beat Albertus Maximus by nearly two lengths when putting up what looks like the best performance of any horse in this field: winning the Goodwood Stakes over nine furlongs at Santa Anita. And, although he subsequently tanked in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, won by Albertus Maximus, he was given a dreadful ride that day - being asked to lay up in a fast run race - and returned a figure far below his consistent best. He was third in this race last year, a long way behind the winner, Curlin, but only just beaten by Asiatic Boy. Well Armed has run in the same two prep races this year, and looks to be in about the same form. There is nothing within 8lbs of Curlin's class in the field and, at [12.0], Well Armed should be supported.

There will be a lot of support for both joint favourites: Albertus Maximus and Asiatic Boy. The latter was second here last year and, despite what some naysayers wrote about his performance when winning round three of the Al Maktoum Challenge, it reads well enough to me, and he can be expected to progress again on Saturday. However, his price offers no real incentive.

Albertus Maximus has won twice since finishing third to Well Armed last September but, in so doing, hasn't improved: that third-placed effort remains his best performance on the figures to date. So whilst some will latch on to his win last time in the Donn Handicap, where he beat a couple of his longer priced World Cup rivals, I'd find it hard to back the horse at [3.5] when he's evidently not the best on show. Well Armed beat him comfortably back in September, and shouldn't be such a big price to do so again.

Of the others, Snaafy has clearly responded well to his move to the Middle East. Whether that's because of the climate, a new racing surface, the application of a visor, or something else altogether is not clear; but he's certainly a horse on the up. However, despite an easy looking win in a Group Three here earlier this month, he would need to improve another 10lbs or so to be really competitive, so I can't be interested at [12.5].

The rest of the field - Muller, Paris Perfect, Muhannak, Arson Squad, Happy Boy, Joe Louis and Anak Nakal - have all been beaten by other horses in the race, and it's hard to make a case for any of them improving enough to reverse any of those reversals.

Running consistently enough in Saudi Arabia, the triple-figure priced Muller could conceivably run on into a place, but, on my best interpretation of form I don't follow at all, he would need more fancied horses to underperform to do so. If you're looking for lottery-style odds, it should be him, but I'll be sticking with the more conservative investment of Well Armed.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(2)

R Hills is God | 31 March 2009

'Of the others, Snaafy has clearly responded well to his move to the Middle East. Whether that's because of the climate, a new racing surface, the application of a visor, or something else altogether is not clear'

Thus speaks Jack 'Hopeless' Houghton

Oh dear...

Unclear to you maybe, but not to more discerning viewers.

Record without Richard Hills: invariably third in some run of the mill handicap

Record with Richard Hills: world cup contender and group class champion.

Is it the climate? the surface? the visor? a bird? a plane? NO IT'S RICHARD 'SUPERMAN' HILLS.

Wake up Houghton. You're becoming embarassing.
Jack Houghton | 31 March 2009

"Becoming embarrassing"? I'll take that as a compliment from you RHIG.

Apologies regarding my oversight of the RH(IG) factor. I seem to remember you pointing out an identical gap in my analysis when talking about Almukawatel (or whatever that god-awful horse was called that the miracle-man managed to conjure up a Dubai World Cup win on) a while back.

Anyway, apology over. How about some congratulations? My first tip since July last year and a 12.0 winner. And not one miserable person comes on here and says well done.