Events / Graham Cunningham / 09 January 2009 /

Jumping is finally back. Barring some hopelessly inaccurate weather forecasting, punters who like to see their money leave their ground every 20 seconds will come out of hibernation for a decent card at Ayr this Saturday. RUK analyst Graham Cunningham is among them and feels that one factor will count above all else as the frost finally relents.

Assessing the state of the ground is a daily puzzle for punters, but one thing you can generally take for granted is that when deep frost comes out of the ground conditions will resemble a gluepot. And when deep frost comes out of Ayr ground you can bet that only the very strongest stayers will prosper.

Saturday's card has been hastily arranged because of the recent rash of abandonments and some of those declared to run look ill equipped for the task that lies ahead. The first four races all hold some appeal as betting mediums, so here goes.

12.50

Most of these are hard to fancy and the trio to focus on are Signalman, Prince de Beauchene and Ballybanks.

Ballybanks travels like a fair horse but has been finishing weakly. He's tough to assess but appeals as the type to trade a fair bit shorter than his pre-race price in-running, while Signalman has taken really well to hurdles and ran a corker under a penalty when worn down by the useful Moscow Catch over this course and distance.

However, Prince De Beauchene looks the one. Already a winner over fences in France, he showed plenty of promise on his British debut at Kelso and this slightly shorter trip looks a step in the right direction given that he raced freely there.

1.25

Lie Forrit looks nap material under conditions he will relish. A decent dual bumper winner, he stays extremely well and looked unlucky over this course and distance when given more to do than ideal behind Mr Woods in November.

Sirkeel bustled up Signalman at Kelso and jumped really well but, along with Irish raider Seraphin, his ability to shine at this trip in taxing ground is questionable. The willing Primrose Time appeals as one to handle the deep ground and could be worth a saver, but Lie Forrit has the best form on offer and this looks the ideal spot for him to open his hurdling account.

2.00

Look no further than Companero to make it two from two over fences. Howard Johnson's gelding is a remorseless galloper on deep ground and earned a mark of 140 over hurdles after an emphatic success at Hexham in November.

His earlier chase success at Carlisle came in gritty style against the useful Nine de Sivola and Will Be Done and, although he made the odd sketchy jump, his technique looked pretty sound overall.

On form there is little to separate Quws Law and Great Approach based on the way they dominated a novice chase here in November. Creinch looks more exposed than some, but Companero is thriving on racing and fully deserves to be a short priced favourite.

2.30

A wide open handicap - and I'm reluctant to nominate one horse - but a line on the main contenders might be of use. Middleton Dene and Dunaskin look suspect stayers under these gruelling conditions, while Endless Power has thrived over fences but faces a much different test here and may well be limbering up with Aintree in mind.

Money Order is hard to assess after a long break, while Theatre Belle's smooth-travelling style makes her more of a back-to-lay prospect than a straight win option. Twelve Paces and the quirky Harmony Brig have questions to answer on their return to hurdles, but Diamond Frontier, Political Paddy and Tartan Snow make most appeal.

Political Paddy's proven stamina will be valuable, while Tartan Snow took a very heavy tumble two out at Newcastle but would have gone very close had he stood up.

Diamond Frontier is another who appeals as a back-to-lay option. He didn't jump as well he normally does at Wetherby last time, but he travels sweetly as a rule and is less exposed than most of these seasoned handicappers.

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