Events / Graham Cunningham / 26 September 2008 / 1

Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham sorts the wheat from the chaff from Saturday's racing at Ascot where Henrythenavigator and Raven's Pass dual once again as the sun sets on the domestic Flat season.

It has been a salutary week in the racing corner of the betting.betfair jungle. First up was provocative Jack Houghton urging all tipsters to add an acceptable guide price to their back and lay recommendations. Next came long-time successful punter Simon Rowlands with ten golden rules for profitable punting. Graham Cunningham digests the sage advice before dissecting the best action (with appropriate guide prices) on a superb Saturday card at Ascot.


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2.30 (Royal Lodge Stakes)

A race with a poor recent record for producing future stars and this renewal features several interlinking form lines, so stay with me.

Almiqdaad beat Cityscape in a Newmarket maiden, but the latter came on bundles to bolt up at Salisbury and looks all set to take his revenge and play a major role now.

Jukebox Jury ran very well despite being checked late behind Soul City in a Group 3 at Longchamp, but the latter was beaten fair and square behind Orizaba in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.

Indeed, the Goodwood race has worked out extremely well - with Lord Shanakill, Sayif, Soul City and Shaweel all going on to make their mark at a high level - and Orizaba stayed on in a manner which suggests a mile shouldn't be a major problem.

On Our Way is a likeable and progressive galloper who needs to improve to land a Group 2. The latter comment also applies to Patrician's Glory, while Coolmore representative Indian Ocean was beaten ten lengths in the National Stakes at the Curragh and shows that distinctive yet slightly worrying high Montjeu head carriage.

In summary, Orizaba and Cityscape look the two most likely candidates. Orizaba is the clear form pick, but Cityscape forged miles clear of some fair horses at Salisbury and he gets the vote to take this step up in class in his powerful stride.


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3.05 (Meon Valley Stud Fillies' Mile)

Seven fillies stand in the way of a flawless first season for Rainbow View but, if the form book means anything, there are only a couple of serious dangers to John Gosden's 1,000 Guineas favourite.

Luca Cumani's Fantasia is plainly one of them and should relish a mile based on the way she quickened to beat Rose Diamond by a length in the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood. Fantasia had something of Rose Diamond at levels there, but Rainbow View gave Roger Charlton's filly 3lb and sauntered three-and-a-half lengths clear of her in Doncaster's May Hill Stakes. However you slice it, Fantasia has to improve considerably if Rainbow View is in the same mood here.

Golden Stream and Dreamtheimpossible are the other two potential big improvers.

The former had to be pushed right out to make a winning debut at Newmarket, but the fact that Sir Michael Stoute has decided to pitch her straight into Group 1 company looks highly significant.

Dreamtheimpossible landed a Curragh Listed race in decisive style recently but, like the remainder, her fate here depends on Rainbow View. The favourite has been trading at a shade under [1.5] since Betfair's market opened. Even at such skinny odds I'm not rushing to oppose her, though Golden Stream might offer some value for those who like to dabble in the place markets.


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3.40 (Totesport.com Challenge Cup)

Some people love these brutally competitive Ascot cavalry charges. Others feel they are too dependent on the draw and track biases to get heavily involved in. The market will be wide open, though, so it's well worth a few lines on the main contenders.

Giganticus: Seems to relish the demands of these big handicaps on Ascot's straight course and added to his good record with a fine third behind Laa Rayb on King George day. Only a pound higher here, so he's handicapped to go well, though stall 1 means his rider will need to be alert to the possibility of heavy traffic if they stick close to the stand rail.

Mastership: One half of me screams he is a big handicap winner waiting to happen, while the other half murmurs that he might just be a bridle hound who will back off once things get really tough. However, there is no doubt that Mastership has caught the eye meeting traffic trouble more than once in top handicaps and, with Johnny Murtagh aboard for the first time, he has to warrant a high place on any short list.

Cape Hawk: Proven Ascot performer who travels strongly and bounced right back to his best with a fine effort behind the fast-improving Primo Loco on the Polytrack at Kempton recently. Slightly lower in the weights here, but the suspicion remains that one or two will prove better handicapped than he is back on turf.

Furnace: Less exposed than most and overcame a wide draw in dour style under a fine ride from Hayley Turner at Chester. Still fairly treated having been raised just 3lb and Michael Bell's team remain in form, but Extraterrestrial would probably have beaten him with a cleaner run at Chester and looks the better value option.

Extraterrestrial: Hasn't attracted much publicity in the build-up but is well worth his place and looks much better than he has shown of late having been handed killer draws at Goodwood and Chester. He's fairly treated at his best and, at [25.0] or bigger on Betfair, it's well worth phoning home to have a couple of quid win and place.

Big Noise: No horse featuring the trainer and jockey combination of Jon Scargill and Richard Thomas is going to have bookies running for cover in a major race at Ascot. Still, Big Noise has created a good impression from limited opportunities this season, including over this course and distance, and there will be many worse 20-1 shots in action over the weekend than this likeable gelding.

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4.15 (Queen Elizabeth II Stakes)

There is this Englishman, an Irishman and a Frenchman. But who will deliver the most telling punchline when Raven's Pass, Henrythenavigator and Tamayuz do battle for the QEII?

The issue of pacemakers is red hot in the wake of the Ballydoyle team tactics verdict and Honoured Guest and Racinger plainly have key roles to play, but in my view this is one high-class puzzle that can play out without money riding on it.

Raven's Pass has been getting closer to Henrythenavigator all season and seemed perfectly happy when allowed to stride on at Goodwood last time, but big John Gosden is warning that the Breeders' Cup Mile is his main objective.

Tamayuz encounters fast ground for the first time after landing two French Group 1 prizes with authority in the summer, while Henrythenavigator showed he is vulnerable at Longchamp last time but never stopped trying despite the fact that a wide draw and holding ground were never likely to suit his late swooping style.

Twist my arm and it would have to be Henry if he touches [2.6] or better. But it bears repeating that this is probably one to watch rather than bet on.

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1. Bernard | 28 September 2008

   ooops taxi for someone? :-)

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