Events / Graham Cunningham / 23 November 2007 / 1

Top racing pundit Graham Cunningham on a huge weekend of jumps action...

Scientists clad in long white lab coats with lots of biros in their top pockets are already calling it the Scott Carson syndrome.

It afflicts young sportsmen who earn rave reviews while progressing through the ranks only to implode when presented with their first chance at the top level.

Like the hapless England keeper Carson, Sam Thomas faces the biggest test of his career aboard the mighty Kauto Star in this weekend's Betfair Chase at Haydock.

But can he step into Ruby Walsh's shoes to add substance to the style and good looks which once saw him nominated as one of Britain's 50 most eligible bachelors?

Weighing room colleagues insist there is no chance nerves will get the better of him, while cute winning rides aboard the fiery Marodima and the idle Geeveem this week suggest his confidence must be sky high.

But, more importantly, how high is Kauto Star's confidence? Ratings experts insist he was close to his best despite being beaten in the Old Roan Chase, but those who focus on running styles were alarmed to see how lazily he ran from halfway.

Which camp do I fall into? Sad to say, on this occasion I'm not sure. Logic dictates that any horse forced to give 14lb to Monet's Garden round Aintree is in for a gruelling shift, but the sight of a dual Tingle Creek winner labouring off the bridle so early was disconcerting.

In essence, there are three possible scenarios. Either Kauto Star, with his ring rust shaken off, will return to his normal silk smooth self to make odds of around evens look like finding money in the street.

Alternatively, that worrying idleness might rear its head again to make him vulnerable. Or maybe the exciting novice My Way de Solzen will continue his relentless improvement to add further lustre to a vibrant chasing division.

Pay your money and take your choice as the quest for the Betfair Million gets under way again, but my main betting interest this weekend will centre on a clutch of races in which that man Thomas also features heavily.

The Welshman also replaces Walsh aboard Taranis in the Betfair Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle and plenty of punters will look no further when they see that this Grade 1 chase winner comes back to hurdling off an official mark of just 135.

However, for every good chaser who exploits a potentially good mark over the smaller obstacles there is another who doesn't quite cut the mustard.

Taranis is unexposed at this level, but he didn't have an ounce to spare when scrambling home off 129 at Sandown last winter and there are more than enough useful specialist hurdlers in this big field to make him worth a lay at the likely odds.

Thomas links up with his old ally Venetia Williams in the opening Betfair Poker Newton Novices' Hurdle and, despite being a maiden over jumps, it's clear they have a live contender in the shape of Lightning Strike.

This good looking chestnut was smart on the Flat and is more than good enough to win races over hurdles based on two solid efforts in Grade 1 company behind Katchit last spring.

But Lightning Strike is very much a galloper. He might just prove vulnerable round Haydock's tight track at two miles and, if that suspicion proves correct, then Osprey View looks the value against him.

Granted, this gelding is more exposed than most of this field, but his form in strong handicap hurdles at Chepstow and Cheltenham off a mark of 126 looks very solid and his freewheeling style and bold jumping make him one of the most appealing win and place prospects of the entire weekend.

Thomas will be under the spotlight yet again when the exciting Gwanako bids to make it six out of six over hurdles in the Reg Griffin 50 years at Timeform Hurdle.

The man this race is named after has a lot to answer for - as he gave me my first job in racing back in 1986 - but Reg will be thrilled with the strength in depth this field boasts.

Gwanako plainly has fine claims given that Nicholls felt he needed the run when fending off Pouvoir at Chepstow, but this is a complex puzzle and I will be casting my net south for the last two trades on a stellar Saturday.

The first is a small lay of Wichita Lineman in the Coral Ascot Hurdle. Jonjo O'Neill's gelding thrived in novice company last season, but his tendency to get outpaced briefly could prove costly if Hardy Eustace, Afsoun and the mercurial Detroit City are in the groove.

And finally this week, it's well worth backing Racing Demon to continue one of the strongest trainer trends in British racing in Huntingdon's Totesport.com Peterborough Chase.

Edredon Bleu won this historic prize four times for Henrietta Knight, while Best Mate and Impek won it for the same handler once apiece. Racing Demon continued the Knight monopoly of Huntingdon's prized asset 12 months ago and, with AP McCoy aboard for the first time, the stage looks set for Racing Demon to show too much pace for Aces Four and Fair Along up the home straight.

Cunningham's Betfair Chase day advice

Back Osprey View win and place Haydock 12.30
Lay Taranis Haydock 13:35
Lay Wichita Lineman Ascot 13:50
Back Racing Demon Huntingdon 15:35

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1. apal | 23 November 2007

   I must disagree with the usually excellent Graham Cunningham about Kauto Star because his performance at Aintree, when beaten, was arguably the best of his career.

   The race was in an excellent time for race conditions as the ground was riding slower than the official good going.

   Give weight away he was not beaten far and a repeat of that performance will see him being impossible to beat given the opposition.

   Only Exotic Dancer has any chance of coming close -though he is still many pounds behind the favourite.

   My Way Du Solzen is possibly 20lbs inferior to Kauto Star and is a very very solid lay.

   Osprey View could well sneak a place but he has plenty to find with Lightning Strike who is my nap of the day.

   Good luck all.

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