Epsom Oaks Antepost Preview: In Gosden We Trust

Will Hoffmann
09 May 2019

John Gosden trained Mehdaayih worth a bet in the Epsom Oaks, says Will Hoffmann

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In his latest antepost column on the big flat races of the summer, Will Hoffmann previews the Epsom Oaks and recommends a bet on John Gosden's Mehdaayih...

"There are occasions when, in the hope of snagging a big-priced winner, you veer toward ignoring the obvious in favour of something lurking unconsidered at a bigger price. This is not one of those occasions. I think Mehdaayih will be extremely hard to beat here and I’d be stunned if 6/1 were still available on the day; she’ll go off half that price. Grab it whilst you can."

All hail Ballydoyle

As you will probably know if you are reading this, I spend an unhealthy amount of time on Twitter and, of late at least, I don't feel I'm getting the requisite return on investment on that time. Occasionally, however, you get a nugget of gold and this quote, from James Knight in reference to the Guineas, is more widely applicable to each of the five Classics.

Hermosa sums up why Coolmore are so good. Like a few of their Guineas winners, she looked exposed enough - but if you throw enough of those ridiculous pedigrees at the race, one of them will chisel out some more improvement from somewhere. They are an unstoppable machine.
? James (@jamesaknight) May 5, 2019

Going through the odds for the Epsom Oaks, I will confess to not being taken with anything Ballydoyle are likely to offer and, having been so taken with James' analysis, that's left me feeling slightly uneasy.

A look at the main contenders

Pink Dogwood is the current favourite but I couldn't have her at all. She won a shade cosily on her return at Navan but that was in a steadily run 10-furlong contest and it didn't tell me anything about her suitability, either in form or trip terms, for the Oaks. I get the feeling she's something of a placeholder favourite anyway and she's perhaps not likely to retain that position for long.

Different connections but a surprisingly similar comment can apply to the William Haggas trained Maqsad. I'm perhaps slightly biased again this horse - I took her on when she won on Saturday - but even I can't deny how impressive she was on that occasion. Held up in rear, she breezed into contention travelling powerfully and went comfortably clear of a couple of solid 90-something types.

My issue with that performance is two-fold. She shaped in that win like 10-furlongs was, if not her maximum, then certainly her most suitable trip, winning because of her superior travelling and tactical speed. The extra two-furlongs would be unlikely to show her to best effect. Add in that the performance was decidedly ordinary on the clock - the Class-three handicap held immediately after it came out the stronger when sectionals are factored in - and it leaves me fairly cold on her chances.

1000-Guineas winner Hermosa deserves a mention, too. The conflicting reports on her likely target make it all but impossible to recommend her as an antepost punt here and she is a notably bigger price on the exchange than with the Sportsbook. Galileo bred, you couldn't rule out the possibility that she'd get this trip, but she would be an extremely rare talent to be able to run to a mark of around 120 in winning the Guineas and follow that with a similar level of ability over a trip a half a mile further.

There are exceptions, of course, but we only have to go back a year to see Saxon Warrior fail to do so despite market expectations in the Derby and you get the impression Ballydoyle don't hold Hermosa in the same kind of regard.

A Gosden trained selection

Mehdaayih - 1280.jpg

Mehdaayih (pictured, right) shot straight to the top of the Oaks market yesterday which was of little surprise given the manner in which she won. A steady enough gallop, which was unusual on the day, Gosden's filly wasn't ideally positioned to strike in the rear of mid-division. It didn't matter. She was brought wide, quickened up electrically and absolutely scorched clear of a good-looking field. The closing sectionals were excellent and this set a very high bar for me.

There are mild-concerns, of course. Her main market rival didn't get the rub of the green and the Oaks will be a much stiffer test of stamina than yesterday's trial. But, if we're honest, these are the kind of concerns you start picking at when dealing with a 2/1 shot not a horse still available at 6/1. The exchange market suggests she is all but certain to be supplemented and we know Gosden has used this race for similar Oaks hopes in the past.

There are occasions when, in the hope of snagging a big-priced winner, you veer toward ignoring the obvious in favour of something lurking unconsidered at a bigger price. This is not one of those occasions. I think Mehdaayih will be extremely hard to beat here and I'd be stunned if 6/1 were still available on the day; she'll go off half that price. Grab it whilst you can.

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