Welcome to a brand new week! Doncaster's St Leger meeting will get the full treatment from Wednesday by Daryl Carter but first here's his take on Monday's racing...
"The change of headgear looks like a good move given his form figures when switching read 112, and he could throw up a surprise in a race that offers no stand-out candidate..."
What's on this week
Doncaster's St Leger meeting begins on Wednesday and will see four day's of top-class racing action.
The meeting will see six Group 2 races over the four days, and the highlight of the meeting is the Group 1 Doncaster St Leger on the final day on Saturday.
High-class handicaps fill the remaining spots on the cards along with the Cazoo Flying Scotsman Stakes Listed Stakes race on Friday.
It will also be Irish Champions weekend with the feature race - the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes - on Saturday at Leopardstown. On Sunday at the Curragh, there are four Group 1 races, including the Irish St Leger.
Plenty to look forward to then, but on to today's racing.
Money Talk continues to highlight the Betfair Sportsbook big-money moves to keep you in the loop. This section will now highlight market moves between 1:00 am and 9:00 am.
The market says LAY!
Which horse is the Betfair Sportsbook market suggesting to Lay?
16:55 Newcastle - Margaret Dumont 11/4 OUT 7/2
Popular with the newspaper pundits but not with punters this morning as three other horses are back against the market leader. The market suggests to LAY.
Mark your card
The Betfair Sportsbook is paying extra places today!
In the 13:00 Starsports.Bet Fillies' Handicap at Brighton, Give 'Em The Slip 3.02/1 has traded at 2.01/1 or lower five times and has yet to score when doing so.
Trainer William Haggas has had five runners in the last three years at Brighton with form figures of 11221 and today sends one runner: 13:30 Irish Millions 2.68/5.
Trainer Michael Appleby has a 29.17% strike rate running horses over six furlongs at Brighton, and today runs Mostallim 3.55/2 in the 14:00.
On the all-weather at Newcastle, trainer Saeed bin Suroor is 40% with horses returning after gelding operation at this venue (two for five) after 400 days off or more. He also has a record of 37.1%, with gelded runners having their first run on the all-weather with a return of investment at 43.4%. Wild Lion 2.01/1 19:25.
If you like backing short-priced horses, or can get evens or bigger, he would be a very good bet here.
At Galway, four-year-olds have taken five of the last eight runnings of the 16:05 Kenny Developments Maiden Hurdle.
In the 18:40 at Galway, trainer Henry De Bromhead and owner Robcour will look for back to back wins in the race with Magic Daze 3.55/2.
It's beginning to look a lot like winter
At Perth, in form trainer Peter Bowen and jockey James Bowen are 50% - five for 10 - when combining in chases at this venue. Today they pair with Staple Head 5.59/2 in the 14:20.
The 15:10 handicap hurdle at Newton Abbot features the 2019 Cheltenham Festival second Tobefair 6.05/1, while Galway features the once highly rated Holymacapony 5.04/1 and the progressive Jazzaway 1.68/13 in the 17:05.
Horses for courses
This section highlights horses that have won twice or more at today's tracks and could be in with a chance today.
16:00 Brighton - Thomas Lanfiere - Has won here twice (50%)
16:00 Brighton - Harlequin Rose - Has won here three times (17%)
16:55 Newcastle - Stragazer - Has won here twice (20%)
17:55 Newcastle - Melgate Majeure - Has won here four times (36%)
Weighted to go well
"Weighted to go well" highlights horses running that are more than 10lbs below their last winning handicap mark.
This section highlights a trainer, owner or jockey who is in excellent current form and their runners or riders for the day.
Trainer John Ryan is operating at a 50% strike rate with five winners from his last 10 runners. Today he saddles: Jack Ryan 14:00 Brighton, Goddess Of Fire 15:00 Brighton and Ocean Wilde 15:30 Brighton.
Today's furthest traveller is trainer David Loughnane who makes the 211 mile journey to Newcastle with Tio Mio 10.09/1 in the 17:55 Cazoo Search Drive Smile Handicap.
Race of the day
We head to Newcastle at 16:55 Cazoo Handicap for a competitive class 3 staying event where there doesn't look to be stacks of pace on but plenty of hold up horses.
Margaret Dumont heads the morning markets and returns to the scene of her career-best RPR rating, which came in a slowly run Northumberland Vase three starts ago.
This is a first return to the all-weather. She has a two pounds higher rating after showing her best form on this surface, but her latest effort here in the above mentioned was not as good as the bare result given her midfield racing position.
She looks the obvious choice to continue her improvement (10 tips from the morning papers), though, but she was behind Monsieur Lambrays at Nottingham last time, and that one wasn't given a clear run from the rear of the field in the Northumberland Vase.
She is open to further improvement but one I want to swerve given her popularity.
Monsieur Lambrays surely would have gotten back into the winner's enclosure with a clear run at Nottingham last time, and although a slowly run event, the runner-up gave the form a good boost in a hot Newmarket handicap next time.
That was a return to form after a couple of no-shows at the back end of last season. He is two for five on the all-weather with an excuse for one of those other efforts, and both wins came on the Tapeta surface for which he meets here.
He looks no more than fairly treated but has valid claims (if not better) than today's favourite and must be considered.
It would take a leap of faith to back Solo Saxophone after his dismal performances the last three times, but he wasn't given a hard time at Pontefract when attempting to give away plenty of weight to some promising three-year-olds.
As mad as it sounds, that was an eye-catching performance, and he is now two pounds lower than his last victory. He put in an excellent performance on his last visit here and only on the all-weather in December (three starts ago) off a handicap mark of 97 behind a subsequent winner.
The change of headgear looks like a good move given his form figures when switching read 112, and he could throw up a surprise in a race that offers no stand-out candidate, while a prominent ride would boost confidence. He is worth rolling the dice with.
Timeform out to grab cash at Galway
The Timeform team head to Galway today and offer up three of their best bets from across the Irish Sea.
This week, there has been lots of talk about potential superstar Baaeed's time figures and, in particular, what he has or hasn't achieved in his five wins to date and some using that to knock his performances (which have been top class).
However, it's worth remembering that time figures only tell you what a horse has done, not what he will or won't do under different conditions next time - and these are usually at the mercy of other horses anyway (i.e pacemakers).
For time figures to be accurate when assessing a horse's chances in a race next time, conditions need to be replicated, and they hardly ever are.
The pace of the next race, the track, the ground are just a few factors that will affect your punting if solely relying on the last time out time figure.
They are fantastic to have in the arsenal. I use them myself, but relying solely on them would be foolish and irresponsible to my followers.
Don't get too caught up on time figures. It's one of the many lessons I have learned in the past couple of years.
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