Money Talk continues to highlight the Betfair Sportsbook big-money moves to keep you in the loop. This section highlights market moves between 1:00 am and 9:00 am.
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Today, there are six races on ITV, which kicks off with the opening contest at York the 13:50. Copper Knight 7.513/2 looks for a third successive victory in this race. However, he has never won on his reappearance. My best bet comes in this contest in Alligator Alley 6.511/2; check below!
In the 14:05 at Salisbury, Base Note 10.09/1 is the rank outsider of the field, but his trainer has a 33% strike rate with three-year-olds at this venue and a 25% strike rate overall in the last five years.
York's 14:25 sees Sir Michael Stoute double-handed with Noon Star 3.7511/4 and Ville De Grace 3.55/2, and he has targeted this race every year since 2014. Ryan Moore has always ridden his favoured runner, and that runner has SP'd shorter than the other when he has had multiple entries.
In the 15:00 Paddy Power Hambleton Handicap at York, Isla Kai 5.04/1 has won the second time out in two consecutive seasons and today is his second run of the campaign. Trainer T J Kent last won a race on the flat turf 277 days ago, but his A/E value stat is very good at 1.29, suggesting punters tend to underbet his runners and Ataser 26.025/1 looks handicapped to have a big say back at the scene of his last victory.
Owner outfit Clipper Logistics (big sponsors at this meeting) have form figures of 3311 in the 16:10 at York, and they are represented by Last Crusader 10.09/1, who looks sure to appreciate this drop back to 5f from 6f.
Horses for courses
This section highlights the best bets from horses that have won twice or more at today's tracks.
13:50 York - Copper Knight - Has won here six times (35%)
15:00 York - Brunch - Has won here twice (50%)
17:20 York - Master Milliner - Has won here twice (100%)
Weighted to go well
"Weighted to go well" highlights horses running that are more than 10lbs below their last winning handicap mark.
15:55 Perth - Beeno - Has won off 126 runs off 108
16:55 Perth - Boy's On Tour - Has won off 115 runs off 95
18:20 Fontwell - Court Royale - Has won off 118 runs off 108
Today's furthest traveller is trainer Henry De Bromhead who has made the 454-mile journey to Perth with his sole runner on the card, Brave Way 1.910/11, in the 14:45. Rachel Blackmore makes the long journey for this ride - her only ride of the day.
Race of the day
We head to York for their blue ribbon event, the 15:35 Dante Stakes, where nine will put their Derby credentials to the test. I feel there is a lot of movement to come in this market yet.
Desert Crown looked well above average when scoring on debut at Nottingham 190 days ago and gave the visual impression he could be very useful indeed. He ran the fastest time of the three 1m races on the card that day, including Derby prospect Walk Of Stars. Still, the form has taken some knocks. This is a big step up in grade, and this is also his reappearance, so there are some doubts about what to expect, with his trainer suggesting he is only just ready.
El Bogden is a worryingly big price for a French Group 1 winner who has recorded the highest RPR of 111 in the field and clearly sets the standard. Too good to be true? He makes his seasonal return and, on all known evidence, should be the favourite for this contest. Still, stamina is a query given how he won in France (dictating a steady gallop) and clinging on at the finish, and this quicker surface is an unknown factor. His short stride is synonymous with softer ground, so it will be interesting to see how he fares for all I wouldn't want to be backing him.
Masekela is bred to improve for a step up in trip, and that's how he shaped at Newmarket on seasonal return when having no answer to subsequent 2,000 Guineas fourth Eydon. I am not convinced he has been in love with the Rowley Mile the last twice - the latest looking unbalanced in the dip - and the return to a flat track should see him to better effect.
He has some strong form from last season and is the forgotten horse in this field, so he represents some excellent each-way value.
Big race verdict
The market predictably has the unexposed Desert Crown heading affairs, but there's likely to be a big shift around here. At the time of writing, it's hard to see why Masekela is such a big price, especially as he is likely to improve on the back of his seasonal return with the flat track and step up in trip both in his favour today. He gets the vote.
Thanks for your question @MattAllSportAck.
There's no definite answer to this unless we start tracking yardage covered (some do), but the shortest way (rail) is usually the quickest.
The disadvantage is that the horse covers more ground on the bend, taking longer to straighten and then quicken. There's also a case to be made that when taking the bend four-wide (for example), the horses are being forced to quicken around the bend as oppossed to off it and in the home straight, therefore, using more energy before required.
Hold-up horses will need plenty of luck in running, as well as a strong pace, or they are disadvantaged.
There's no distance rule of thumb.
Snap up the price on Alligator Alley at York
He has already been well supported, but Alligator Alley 6.511/2 in the opening 13:50 at York looks one of the best bets of the entire week.
I was a big fan of this horse before his absence when with former trainer Joseph O'Brien so it was very encouraging to see him make a bright start for this yard at Wolverhampton on the back of a gelding operation, wind operation and a 533-day break.
He stuck to the task strongly in the closing stages behind a useful AW performer in Tone The Barone, and he shaped as though he would improve a good deal for that outing (very keen).
He was a non-runner at Chester, but today's scenario looks even better as he returns to the scene of his effortless Listed Rose Stakes.
He was rated 104 as a two-year-old before seemingly having his problems at three and was last seen on turf in the Group 1 Flying Five at the Curragh. Back in a handicap today off a reduced mark of 95 should see him to best effect on this handicap debut.
On paper, his Wolverhampton run when in receipt of 2lbs from Highfield Princess (104) - a subsequent winner and scorer of yesterday's Group 2 Duke Of York - and all-weather specialist Tone The Baron (105) makes him look well treated, and he is entitled to improve a good deal from that outing.
British Racing is already in a dire position, and I have tried to ignore this gambling review for as long as possible, but my god, a drop in betting turnover and, as such then, the levy that props the sport as it is would be nothing more than disastrous for horse racing.
Fancy telling people what they can or can't afford? Has this country gone mad?
I understand there is a small percentage of people that are at risk from gambling, but there are those at risk of alcohol or shopping addiction. While this may be terrible for horse racing, and I mean awful, if this goes through, the question after is, where does it stop?
Sometimes I just find it incredible that there's a one in four hundred trillion chance of us being alive, yet we pander to some trying to tell people how to live their lives with little to no data or facts.
Feel free to pop around my gaff and spend a day punting. You'll soon have a shock with your £100 cap.
No one has the right to tell someone else how to spend their hard-earned cash.
Until tomorrow, be lucky.
Follow Daryl Carter on Twitter @DarylCarter7