Ryanair Chase Preview: Two big-price fancies for Festival's Thursday highlight

Keith Melrose
14 January 2015

Menorah is fancied to go well in the Ryanair Chase

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Keith Melrose from Timeform looks towards the Ryanair Chase, picking out bets at 20/1 and 16/1.

"...Menorah has the form, suitability to the course (at least over hurdles) and speed to mount a serious challenge in the Ryanair, yet he’s available at 20/1."

The King George is a National Hunt season's supergroup, albeit in reverse. It's the crucial piece of form when it comes to finding the Gold Cup winner and the same tends to go for the Ryanair, while in years such as this one it's possible that its ramifications will also be felt in the Champion Chase.

We're here to discuss the Ryanair Chase and so, naturally, we start with the race's favourite and King George runner-up, Dynaste. We've already recommended that you back Dynaste for the Gold Cup, for which he appears to be better value than the Ryanair if you're on at 20/1 non-runner-no-bet. At 11/2 for the shorter race, with similar concessions from the bookmakers yet to materialise, he's a riskier proposition without the same lucrative return.

Were Dynaste to run in the Gold Cup, the rightful favourite for the Ryanair would in our view become Champagne Fever. He, like 2013 Ryanair winner Cue Card, went through the King George like a serious threat to Silviniaco Conti before weakening. Unlike Cue Card, Champagne Fever is still on the way to his peak. He also failed to settle in the King George and, in a well-run race over a shorter trip, he's sure to be seen in a better light. Champagne Fever is probably a 170 horse already under ideal conditions.

The problem is that he's not a guaranteed runner, either. The usual non-committal quotes from Willie Mullins about targets have been spread, but this time they ring true. The Riccis have three senior chasers for Cheltenham this year- as well as Champagne Fever there's Ballycasey and Djakadam- and they are in the habit of keeping their horses apart. Since Djakadam isn't entered in the Champion Chase and Ballycasey has already failed over two miles this winter, it doesn't take a great leap of logic to see them sending Arkle runner-up Champagne Fever back in trip.

It would, in our view, be a mistake. To play to their string's strengths, the Riccis would do well to put their best horse in the most suitable race. That is surely Champagne Fever in the Ryanair, who would have only Dynaste and maybe one other ahead of him in the pecking order.

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As you may have guessed, that 'one other' is our first firm recommendation. At first, Menorah not being among the Gold Cup entries was something of a surprise, but the plan looks to be getting clearer now.

Would you rather be driven by someone who'd failed their driving test with one major error, or 16 minor ones? Menorah used to fall into the latter category, but this season prior to the King George he'd been safe behind the wheel and that had allowed him to win the Charlie Hall and finish second in the Betfair Chase. The second of those efforts, when he finished two lengths behind Silviniaco Conti and eight ahead of Dynaste, is form that only the winner has topped over fences this season.

The King George, in which Menorah's chances ended when he belted four out, was seen by some as a return to the bad old days. But it wasn't; not really. It was one major error, which in steeplechasing terms isn't as worrying as Menorah's former habit of umpteen minor ones.

The Ryanair, over shorter and back at Cheltenham, will admittedly test that theory to the limit. If it holds Menorah has the form, suitability to the course (at least over hurdles) and speed to mount a serious challenge in the Ryanair, yet he's available at 20/1. That's too big about a horse that has beaten virtually all of the market principals this season.

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The King George also brings us sniffing around the Jonjo O'Neill yard, which at the time of writing looks to be just coming out of a mid-season dip. Johns Spirit shaped quite well in the King George considering his yard was in the trough of that lull at the time. Cheltenham at around two and a half miles is where he really excels, too: he's won three times and was only narrowly denied when defending his Paddy Power Gold Cup title in November.

At around 12/1 Johns Spirit is a solid choice. He'll surely run well but has about that sort chance of winning- he will certainly need to improve on his Timeform rating of 159. Stablemate Taquin de Seuil is rated the same but has greater potential, which hasn't been realised in 2014/5 through factors largely beyond his control.

Taquin de Seuil wasn't fully tuned up for his reappearance and he shaped as though amiss in the Betfair Chase just as his yard's form was tailing off. In between he did much better, finishing second to Menorah in the Charlie Hall, and the stop-start nature of that race really didn't suit. An end-to-end gallop with a stiff finish, as was seen to a large extent in last year's Golden Miller, is more Taquin de Seuil's game. He'll get that sort of test in the Ryanair and it therefore appeals as a perfect opportunity for him to improve again. A price of 16/1 that it will be enough to win is on the generous side, remembering that Taquin de Seuil was sent off at just 9/2 in a classy renewal of the Betfair Chase last time.

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The Ryanair, 10 years old now, has largely overcome the identity crisis of its youth and matured into a genuine championship race. That said, it still occasionally suffer from little-brother syndrome compared with the Gold Cup and Champion Chase and that could see both Dynaste and Champagne Fever, the two likeliest winners, turn up elsewhere at the Festival. The second of those is certainly worth a bet if he's still 8/1 once he's confirmed for the race.

At this early stage it's probably better to get the big-priced fancies onside. That's why it's recommended that you take Menorah and Taquin de Seuil, both very likely runners who have been unfairly shuffled back in the betting after excusable runs last time. At 20/1 and 16/1 respectively, you needn't go in deep to ensure hefty potential takings.

Recommended bets:

1pt win Menorah at 20/1
1pt win Taquin de Seuil at 16/1