Gold Cup Ante-Post: Festival's favourite race could be an absolute classic

Alan Thompson
23 January 2016

Which way will Bryan Cooper go?

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Alan Thompson has turned his attention to what is shaping to be one of the best Gold Cups for many a year and he assesses the leading players chances...

"Bryan Cooper has a massive decision to make as Gigginstown House Stud own both the Don’s (Poli and Cossack) and also Rags to Riches who was third in last year’s event and doesn’t even get a mention in this piece."

I'll be backing Don Poli @ 7.26/1 Exchange and hope Bryan makes the right choice

2016 Cheltenham Gold Cup
Friday March 18, 2016

The 2016 renewal of this event is shaping up to be an absolute cracker, as there are just so many quality three mile chasers around at the minute. The only one missing from the list is the unfortunate Conygree, last year's winner and the first novice to do so since 1974, but who won't make it to the start due to injury.

Djakadam is the current market leader at 7/2 on the Sportsbook but is not one I am keen to back. Willie Mullins' charge finished second to Conygree in the race last year and has since come out and got well beaten by Don Cossack in the Punchestown edition of this race, over three miles and a furlong. But he bounced back and won the grade one John Dukan over two-and-a-half miles again at Punchestown.

My concern over Djakadam stem from his sire Saint Des Saints who has produced multiple grade one winners but none over three miles one furlong, the only horse he has bred that has won beyond three miles one furlong was a class five handicapper. There is a definite question mark over his stamina in this class and there is limited value in his price at this stage, I would look elsewhere.

The RSA is always a good pointer for the following year's Gold Cup and for that reason 2015 winner Don Poli (4/1) must be considered. Another Mullins horse, he seems to come alive at this venue with two Festival starts bringing two Festival wins (he also won the Martin Pipe in 2014). His only two chase defeats have both come at Punchestown in yielding ground. It looks like he will run in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown on February 6 before heading to Cheltenham. He is evens to win the Irish event and will probably only get stronger in this market.

After finishing third in last year's Ryanair Don Cossack (5/1) is now the highest-rated chaser in Britain and Ireland off a mark of 175. And that rating is fully deserved, after his demolition of Djakadam, Road to Riches and Cue Card at Punchestown. He then went on to win three more chases but fell in the King George at Kempton. This race is normally won by improving, lightly-raced types - Don Cossack has, at the time of writing, had 18 chase starts, only one of the last 20 Gold Cup winners has had more than 14, and that was the legendary Kauto Star who won in 2009 following 20 chase starts.

One thing is sure, Bryan Cooper has a massive decision to make as Gigginstown House Stud own both Don Poli and Don Cossack, not to mention also Rags to Riches who was third in last year's event! Bryan's decision will obviously impact the market but I think if both go to post he will choose Poli over Cossack.

Cue Card (6/1) is the million pound horse, he will win connections the massive bonus if he can get his head in front, after winning the Betfair Chase and the King George. He is another dual Cheltenham Festival winner, landing the bumper in 2010 and the Ryanair in 2013. A hugely popular horse, the roof will come off the stand if he can power up the hill and win this. My heart would be with Cue Card and I would love to see him win but age is against him. Since 1992, 99 runners have tried to claim this prize as a ten-year-old and only one has been successful (Cool Dawn 1998).

Eventually we get to Vautour (6/1) who was simply magnificent in the JLT last year and while connections are still saying that the Gold Cup is the main target, for me it may be a year too early and my preference would be the Ryanair. He showed at Kempton that stamina could well be an issue and of the leading players he is last on my list of potential Gold Cup winners.

There are others with chances further down the betting but I will be shocked if the winner doesn't emerge from the leading players. Don Poli is the one I want on my side and I will take the risk of backing him on the exchange at 7.26/1 (he is 4/1 on the Sportsbook with stakes returned if he doesn't start on the day). This race is his sole focus on and should any of the others not make it or he annihilates the field in the Irish Gold Cup, that price will only get shorter.

One thing is for certain, if all these make it to the start on Friday March 18 then we are in for one very special race. It really doesn't get any better than this!