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Cheltenham Festival 2018 Racing Tips: Djakadam's time has finally come in Gold Cup

Tony Calvin
15 March 2018

Tony Calvin is tipping Djakadam to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup

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Tony Calvin returns with five tips and a long term fancy in the Cheltenham Gold Cup as he attempts to cap off a fine week at the Festival...

"I locked onto my Gold Cup fancy some time ago and, stop laughing at the back, I am still hopeful that a certain Djakadam can finally get over the line at the fourth attempt in the Gold Cup at 15:30."

Moore can triumph with Ranger

Just the nine in the Triumph Hurdle but luckily the field includes the horse that I have been nibbling at on the Exchange for a couple of weeks, namely Sussex Ranger.

And I think he is the bet at the current prices, too, so get with him at 21.020/1 or bigger in the 13:30.

This contest may lack the usual numbers, but it certainly doesn't appear shy of talent. The mare Apple's Shakira is probably a worthy favourite, but Redicean has looked really slick and quick in his three starts at Kempton, the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile 1-2 Mr Adjudicator and Farclas rock up, while who knows how good the other Mullins trio are.

Stormy Ireland won by the small matter of 58 lengths on her Irish debut, and you will hear and read "could be anything" a lot when she is being discussed in the media in the next 24 hours.

But I think the grinder Sussex Ranger is the bet. He may not be as sexy as most of the opposition and would no doubt have disappointed plenty when beaten at 11/8 in a 1m4f Kempton handicap on the all-weather last month.

But I don't think connections were disappointed by that prep run at all, and his earlier Sandown win and 1 1/2 length Finale second to We Have A Dream (who would have been high up in the betting for this race had he not picked up an injury this week) mark him down as a player in these conditions.

He doesn't do anything quickly and I imagine Jamie Moore will gun him out from the front - it is difficult to predict what will go forward when you are dealing with lightly-raced juveniles, but Stormy Ireland made all in a lesser race last time - and try to get the classier types at it.

I am not going mad on the stakes front but he is worth a small interest.

Course winner Bonney to go well again

The County Hurdle at 14:10, is the usual tricky puzzle but I can see why plenty's search would want to start and finish with Flying Tiger.

The form of his Fred Winter win here last year has not worked out at all but that at least shows the hustle and bustle of the Festival holds no fears, and the Cheltenham handicap project has been in evidence all season, methinks.

He has run three races in this campaign which suggest a mark of 140 is very workable, and indeed his latest fourth to Elgin in the Kingwell Hurdle suggests he has been let in lightly.

That race may have been messy but the winner and third have run good races in defeat since, and hopefully he can handle what may be desperate ground come Friday afternoon.

But the fact that his three best hurdle runs have been on soft ground is encouraging, and Noel Fehily getting back on board certainly is. The problem is that his price around 12/1 is just on the short side for my liking, though.

If the Nick Williams stable is in great form, the Dan Skelton yard isn't firing, which has put me up off the trusty Spiritofthegames. I know the horse is Mr Dependable and the form of his last two handicap starts look rock solid, but Skelton's horses were generally running poorly going into Thursday, even if he had a third in the Fred Winter on Wednesday.

However, I will have a bet in the shape of William H Bonney at 34.033/1 or bigger.

He has failed to build on an eye-catching run in the Greatwood Hurdle here in November (traded 2.1211/10 in running when tanking into the lead coming into the straight), even if he ran okay in the Betfair Hurdle last time, but at least he can race off a 4lb lower mark than here in November.

He travels really well through his races when on song and this soft-ground course and distance winner (on this New track) is definitely on an exploitable mark at the moment. He is far from solid but he looks very big to me at 34.033/1 or bigger. He will be played late.

Rhythm fits the Albert Bartlett bill

The Albert Bartlett at 14:50, is really going to be a war of attrition and you will need a real experienced streetfighter in this.

Poetic Rhythm and Calett Mad certainly fit that bill, and are plausible winners at around the 16/1 mark, especially as they have form around here.

But this race is absolutely rammed with classy and unexposed staying novices - though, I suspect, connections of Next Destination will rue running him in the Ballymore on Wednesday, as he looked a real three-miler there - and I can't get my head around the race, to be honest.

Fourth time lucky for Djakadam

I locked onto my Gold Cup fancy some time ago and, stop laughing at the back, I am still hopeful that a certain Djakadam can finally get over the line at the fourth attempt in the Gold Cup at 15:30.

The handicapper is a non-believer, as he has dropped him to a mark of 162 after his last three runs, but no so long ago he was rated 170, which would make him the "form horse" in this race.

If you forgive him his recent efforts - and two of them don't take that much forgiving anyway - then you only have to go back to Punchestown last April to make him a massive runner here.

He ran Sizing John to a short-head there, and of course he has a great record of 224 in this race, exactly the sequence of placings The Fellow had before finally taking this prize.

I know the combination of the trip in heavy is not ideal, but he stays all right and handles the ground, and no way is he a 33/1 chance in a field that lacks a superstar. Well, as it stands, anyway,

Of the opposition, maybe Road To Respect appeals most (though last year's runner-up Minella Rocco has had a wind op and loves it here), but I stand to win a fair few quid if Djakadam obliges, so I don't have any need to go in again. But if you want a bet, then I really do think he is your man at the current prices.

With 18 runners in these conditions, there will be a lot of people anxious to get up front and out of potential trouble, but hopefully Patrick Mullins will get a prominent slot at, or near, the head of affairs.

History suggests you should consider putting in an in-running lay if that is your bag as he has traded at 11-10 twice, and 3-1, in his three Gold Cups.

Diese Des Bieffes hard to ignore

I would be lying if I said I had any knowledge of the Hunter Chase world, so I will leave the Foxhunter at 16:10, to others.I find it hard to get away from the claims of Diese Des Bieffes at 9.617/2 or bigger in the Martin Pipe at 16:50.

He shaped as if this trip would suit when second to If The Cap Fits over 2m at Kempton and, if anything , he looked as though he wanted even further than 2m5f when fifth in the Lanzarote last time.But a strongly-run 2m4f here should be absolutely fine for this lightly-raced 5yo, and that Lanzarote form is working out very well, so a 2lb rise looked fair enough.

The winner, third and fourth finished fourth and sixth and second respectively in the Coral Cup on Wednesday, while the Kempton runner-up finished third in the Betfair Hurdle. It is very strong form (the seventh has won since, too, and the eight finished second in the EBF Final), and Diese Des Bieffes is having just his fifth start over hurdles here with James Bowen in the plate.

At a much bigger price, Flaxen Flare is given a chance. Back him at 60.059/1 or bigger,

He is in fact a very obvious outsider at the 40/1+ mark, even if he comes here after three very modest efforts over fences.

The fact that he has run blinders on all three starts at the course is the reason why he shouldn't be falling under anyone's radar though. He won the Fred Winter here in 2013, then finished fourth in a Greatwood and fifth in a County.

I know they were a few years ago but he has shown enough in more recent times to suggest he could make his presence felt here off a mark of 143, and I think the trip and ground (he finished second in a heavy-ground Galway Hurdle) should be fine. His best efforts have come in blinkers, and they replace the cheekpieces that he has been wearing of late.

Russell no Gamble in Grand Annual

Bun Doran will be very interesting if he gets a run in the Grand Annual at 17:30, but we obviously can't tip him as it stands.

Vaniteux has been the ultimate, and rather obvious, "plot" horse all season for this race, and a recent wind op and second-time blinkers, complete that profile. But connections will probably be more than gutted to be coming here on deep ground, as all his best form have come on a sounder surface.

The ground will not be a problem for Top Gamble, who is the bet in the race at 18.017/1 or bigger. He was disappointing behind stablemate Gino Trail at Sandown last month but the handicapper has dropped him 3lb for it, and that makes him dangerously well weighted off a mark of 149.

That is 10lb lower than he was when he was fourth in the Champion Chase here last year, and that is far from the only good run he has on his dance card around here.

And, hopefully, the first-time cheekpieces (the stable is one from two with these in recent years, so use this option very rarely it seems) with Davy Russell back in the plate (he has been on board for the horse's best efforts), can see him bounce back to form. He doesn't look a 20/1+ chance to me.

In fact, I really like him at the price.

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Recommended bets

Back Sussex Ranger at 21.020/1 or bigger in 13:30 Cheltenham
Back William H Bonney at 34.033/1 or bigger in 14:50 Cheltenham
Back Diese Des Bieffes at 9.617/2 or bigger in 16:50 Cheltenham
Back Flaxen Flare at 60.059/1 or bigger in 16:50 Cheltenham
Back Top Gamble at 18.017/1 or bigger in 17:30 Cheltenham