Cheltenham Day Four Tips: Caid Du Berlais is bet of the day

Tony Calvin
13 March 2014

Can Tony land some big priced Festival winners on Friday?

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It's Gold Cup day at Cheltenham but our big price tipster Tony Calvin, fresh from backing Spring Heeled at 19.018/1 on Thursday, has spotted better value in some of the other races, with his best bet coming in the Martin Pipe...

Recommended Bets

Back Royal Irish Hussar in the 13:30 at 11.010/1 or better

Back Alaivan in the 14:05 at 17.016/1 or better

Back Caid Du Berlais in the 16:40 at 11.010/1 or better (best bet)

Back Next Sensation and Dare Me in the 17:15 at 9.08/1 and 34.033/1 or better respectively

If someone had told me this time last year that I would not only have joined Twitter, but made over 4,600 tweets, then I would have given them rather large odds on it happening.

Even as Betfair's Head of Media, I was never keen to join the social media world. It was only after I left the job in April that I joined and, like the majority on there it seems, all too frequently make a complete arse of myself. Normally, after one too many...

But one of my more insightful offerings was to suggest that my followers - horrible word, but there you are - back Triolo D'Alene at 40/1 and 33/1 for the Gold Cup early one Sunday morning after he had just been declared a probable runner by the stable after a good work-out.

And I still given him an excellent each-way chance, and a fair winning one, of following in the footsteps of his stablemate Bob's Worth in taking this race straight from his Hennessy success four months previously, especially on this ground.

The problem is his price now, as I now think his current odds of 14.013/1 for the Gold Cup at 15:20, now accurately reflect his chance. And you simply shouldn't be betting when that is the case.

I respect Last Instalment if he gets the go-ahead on the ground, but Bob's Worth and Silviniaco Conti are pretty bombproof at the head of the market. So, as with all of the big races here this week, I just can't see a punting edge in the big race of the day.

Sorry.

16:40 - Caid Du Berlais

I make no apologies for making Caid Du Berlais my bet of the day at odds of 11.010/1 in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys though.

I rang his trainer Paul Nicholls after his appearance on Wednesday's Morning Line and, as he was just getting out of a cab after arriving at his hotel, I heard him tipping this horse to the driver in the background!

It is not hard to see why.

Nicholls was seriously targeting this horse at the Arkle or JLT before a disappointing run in a Grade 2 chase at Doncaster last time, but he shelved those plans after a disappointing run there. But not only did he apparently hate the ground that day, he was also treated for a minor case of ulcers afterwards.

He is in good form at home now, and little wonder why he is reverting back to hurdles here off a very attractive mark. He split two massive subsequent improvers in Flaxen Flare and Ptit Zig in the Fred Winter here last season, did not get the credit he deserved for chasing home Champion Hurdle winner Jezki at Down Royal on his reappearance and I think the step up in trip will suit him. I think he has a massive chance.

I will have a saver on Local Hero though at odds of 30.029/1 or better.

He has his stamina to prove over hurdles but he was a stayer on the Flat, so I am not unduly worried on that score. And he himself bumped into a massive improver when second at Musselburgh last time. He has a big each-way chance.

13:30 - Royal Irish Hussar

I think Royal Irish Hussar is a fair bet at 11.010/1 or bigger in the Triumph Hurdle. You can easily argue that his defeat of Guitar Pete here in November, crucially on good ground, is on a par with that of Calipto's and he clearly wasn't at his best at Doncaster the following month.

He comes here a fresh horse, Nicky Henderson's horses have generally been in good form here this week, and he could be the one to beat if returning to his best.

14:05 - Alaivan

I have sided with Alaivan twice this season and I am not going to desert him after his staying-on sixth from well off the pace in the Betfair Hurdle last time. He rates a fair bet at 17.016/1 or better in the County Hurdle.

I think a helter-skelter pace on a stiff track is what he needs, and I remain convinced that he has a big handicap in him. He has crept in at the bottom of the weights here, his talented jockey takes 5lb off, and he races off a 12lb lower mark than when a close sixth in this race on good ground three years ago.

There is enormous confidence behind Briar Hill in the Albert Bartlett at 14:40, but I can't get involved around the even money mark, and if I was playing in the race I would have Captain Cutter at double-figure odds.

17:15 - Next Sensation and Dare Me

I can't put anything up in the Foxhunter at 16:00 either - I would feel something of a fraud giving advice in that race - but I think Next Sensation is pretty rock solid at 9.08/1 or better in the Grand Annual at 17:15.

He simply looked a serious tool when winning a decent handicap at Doncaster last time and I don't think a 9lb rise will stop him going very close.

But I will go two-handed into the race with Dare Me at 34.033/1 or better. He has gone up 15lb for a wide-margin win on his comeback win in heavy ground at Warwick in January, but that was justified and he has proven form on this better ground, too.

He shouldn't be dismissed to the degree that he has done in the betting.

Enjoy Friday. I'll be back with my usual Channel 4 Races column on Saturday morning.

My Cheltenham 2015 Day 4 Tips are now up on betting.betfair to see if I can do as well as this year!

Recommended Bets
Back Royal Irish Hussar in the 13:30 at 11.010/1 or better
Back Alaivan in the 14:05 at 17.016/1 or better
Back Caid Du Berlais and Local Hero in the 16:40 at 11.010/1 and 30.029/1 or better respectively
Back Next Sensation and Dare Me in the 17:15 at 9.08/1 and 34.033/1 or better respectively

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