Handicappers' Corner: Breeders' Cup 2013

How good a Breeders' Cup was that then? It is not a rhetorical question, for all that the meeting's success seemed to be taken as unimpeachable by some. If you were one of those who got a freebie to California, if you like human stories which warm the cockles of the heart, or if you are just a fan of exciting, high-quality racing, regardless of where and when it takes place, then you are likely to give the 2013 Breeders' Cup a big thumbs up. It was dramatic, it was thrilling. But was it actually all that good?

There is more than one way to measure this, of course. But using Timeform ratings, carefully standardised and calibrated across the years, is certainly one of them. Timeform ratings suggest that the 2013 Breeders' Cup was slightly substandard in terms of the quality of the equine performances themselves. 

Mucho Macho Man's 128 rating in victory in the Classic was the highest by a winner over the two days, and was the same as he ran to in narrow defeat the year before. It was the fourth successive year in which no winner has run to 130 or higher at the meeting: such stellar performances occurred more often than not immediately before that.

Mucho Macho Man ended up winning narrowly from Will Take Charge (who comes out fractionally ahead of him on 129 due to weight-for-age allowances) and Declaration of War (who seemed to reproduce his European best): Travers Stakes winner Will Take Charge is the highest-rated 3-y-o male in North America as a result. Mucho Macho Man is slightly below the 10-year average for winners of this race, with Ghostzapper in pride of place on 137 in 2004 and 2011 winner Drosselmeyer on 123 at the other extreme.

Another way of looking at things is to consider the number of winners which surpassed the recent averages for winners of each race in question. Dirt Mile winner Goldencents (rated 125) and Ladies Classic winner Beholder (rated 127) were historically good winners of their respective races, while Chriselliam (ran to 114 in winning Juvenile Fillies' Turf) and Outstrip (116 in victory in the Juvenile Turf) were also better-than-average. But that represents only four races out of 14, and there were plenty of not-so-good winners. 

One of the reasons for this is the Santa Anita track, hardly open and galloping for dirt performers and remarkably tight on the turf course. Under such conditions, and with the turf track riding especially fast again, horses simply do not tend to get strung out so much. Then again, this was the fourth time in the last six years that Santa Anita has played host, so the ratings of many of the past winners have that factored in also. 

This is a pertinent point where Wise Dan is concerned. Once again, he was not quite at his imperious best in winning the Turf Mile, taking until 100 yards out to run down Za Approval, and posting a performance rating of 124, compared to his peak of 135 (which makes him the most highly rated horse in training anywhere in the world). If you want a better indication of what Wise Dan can do, you need look back no further than his crushing defeat of Za Approval and Trade Storm (both of whom received weight) in the Woodbine Mile in September. 

Wise Dan has been beaten only twice in his last 15 starts, the majority of them in Grade 1 company, and is 6-out-of-7 in 2013. If the voters in the US Horse of The Year awards want Timeform's opinion, Wise Dan should be given that honour again this year. 

Compressed margins at the finish of the Turf (there was little more than two lengths between the first six) also mean that Magician, with a figure of 125, is credited with running no higher on bare form than he did in winning the Irish 2000 Guineas in May. However, it seems highly likely he is capable of surpassing that another day and a master rating of 128 or 129 would be a better reflection of that. The Fugue was about 10 lb below her best in second. 

The finish of the Filly and Mare Turf was even more compressed (less than three lengths between the first seven) and Dank was a few pounds below the form she showed in winning Arlington's Beverly D in running to 117. 

There were also a few races in which the best horse seemed to get beaten due to the run of the race, not least the Juvenile, in which Havana looked all over the winner before being run down by New Year's Day (who ran to 119), the latter having been further off the punishing pace. Havana is probably the best juvenile in North America, if not necessarily by much, and that is reflected in his 120 Timeform master rating. 

So, the self-styled World Thoroughbred Championships managed to attract a fair number of the best horses on Timeform ratings from around the world, but there were, again, no truly standout efforts, just plenty of pretty good ones. With other nations, not least the UK, upping their games regarding domestic Champions' Days, US racing could do with another Ghostzapper emerging in 2014 to bring back the glory days associated with some of the earlier editions of the Breeders' Cup. 

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