Breeders' Cup Classic 2016: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Breeders' Cup Classic 2016
Santa Anita
Sunday November 6, 00:35 GMT

1. Effinex (James Jerkens) Best effort of 2015 came when six and a half lengths second to American Pharoah in this race, and followed that with good win in Grade 1 Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs in late-November. Grade 2 wins at Oaklawn in April and Belmont in July this season, but was beaten two and a half lengths by Frosted in Whitney Stakes at Saratoga since and has work on to reverse form with that rival here.

2. Frosted (Kiaran McLaughlin) Has form at one and a half miles (second to American Pharoah in Belmont Stakes last season) but best effort on Timeform ratings has come at a mile, namely the Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont earlier this season, which he won by an astonishing fourteen and a half lengths. One of the key runners here on form but may not be quite good enough to beat an on-song California Chrome.

3. Keen Ice (Todd Pletcher) The only horse to beat American Pharoah in 2015 and unsurprisingly that win in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga remains his best effort to date (for all that American Pharoah was below his best). Needs a certain set of circumstances to be seen to best effect (best when coming off strong pace) and hasn't necessarily had that this season yet. Capable of better than he has shown so far in 2016 but still has plenty to find with the principals.

4. California Chrome (Art Sherman) Won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes before posting a good third in this race in 2014. Just two starts in 2015 (second in the Dubai World Cup in March), but has returned better than ever at the age of five in 2016, winning all six of his starts and proving better than ever with impressive wins in both the Pacific Classic at Del Mar (by five lengths from Beholder) and the five-runner Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita (beat Dortmund by two and a quarter lengths despite being eased) on his last two outings. The one to beat.

5. Win The Space (George Papaprodromou) Won optional claimer here in May and ran right up to his best when six and three-quarter lengths third to California Chrome in the Awesome Again Stakes here last time. Plenty to find with that rival once more.

6. Melatonin (David Hofmans) Good record here at Santa Anita, winning in optional claimer in February, Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap in March and Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Stakes (by one and a half lengths from Win The Space) in June. Also posted creditable length second to Effinex in Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap on penultimate start. Needs more but is at least progressing.

7. War Story (Mario Serey Jr) Won allowance race at Thistledown in July and improved when a good head-second of seven in minor event at Parx last time, but flying too high in this grade.

8. Shaman Ghost (James Jerkens) Won Grade 2 Brooklyn Invitational Stakes at Belmont in June and took another step forward to win Woodward Stakes at Saratoga (by head from Mubtaahij, responding well to lead close home) in September. Much more needed again here though.

9. Hoppertunity (Bob Baffert) Sat closer to the pace than of late and found plenty off the bridle to collar Effinex inside the final furlong in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont last time. That was just about his best effort to date, but had been well beaten by California Chrome in the Pacific Classic Stakes at Del Mar prior to that, and a place looks his best hope here.

10. Arrogate (Bob Baffert) Sole three-year-old in the field who earned his place here with a remarkable performance in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga on just his fifth career start, beating American Freedom by thirteen and a half lengths. That sort of performance puts him in the mix here and he could be California Chrome's biggest danger with the potential for more to come given his progressive profile.

Timeform Breeders' Cup Classic 1-2-3

1. California Chrome
2. Arrogate
3. Melatonin

Timeform Analyst's Verdict:

It's hard to escape from the consistent brilliance of CALIFORNIA CHROME, who has swept all before him in a terrific five-year-old season up to this point and should prove difficult to beat. Improving three-year-old Arrogate produced a remarkable performance when a wide-margin winner of the Travers Stakes at Saratoga and is the obvious threat, with Melatonin a possible for a place at long odds.