Breeders' Cup 2016: Put your Trust in Stoute's Queen

The Breeders' Cup has been accused of inspiring punter apathy, something that is reflected in bookmaker turnover and likely caused by unfamiliarity with many of the horses, among other factors.

But 2016 does look an engaging renewal of the meeting. Not only is Aidan O'Brien continuing his drive for 25 Group 1 wins but some of the big-name American horses like Flintshire and Tepin are familiar to us. UK and Irish punters can at least form strong opinions on their own horses and frame the race around those views which is what I've done here in concentrating on the turf races. As ever in races where there are plenty of unknowns, stakes should be kept small.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

The Irish two-year-old fillies are a strong crop again this season and are well-represented here with three of the first four in the market. Intricately seems to prefer soft ground while Roly Poly is unproven beyond six furlongs, but one filly that will relish both ground and trip is Hydrangea. I've been looking forward to her stepping up to a mile all season and she duly improved for it last time in the Fillies' Mile but was unfortunate to bump into 1,000 Guineas favourite Rhododendron. There's nothing of that calibre in here and she can make a bold bid from the front, well-drawn in stall one to go forward.

Filly & Mare Turf

My best bet of the meeting is Queen's Trust who should relish this drop to ten furlongs. Though without a win in 2016, she's been unfortunate to bump into some high-class fillies on her last three outings and on her penultimate start in the Yorkshire Oaks she travelled like one that would be better suited by this trip than the eventual winner Seventh Heaven. Her last run in the equivalent race on British Champions Day was another fine effort; she was left too far out of her ground against the enterprisingly-ridden Journey and actually finished with the best closing sectional in the race. Rather than bet her now, I would suggest holding off until the day of the race and backing her on US Tote odds as the early morning line prices suggest she will be bigger there.

Turf

Found's switcheroo back to this race makes sense but she's not one to take a short price about and I prefer her stablemate Highland Reel. He's more effective on firm ground than Found and has run in all the right races this season like the King George, Juddmonte International and the Arc. Proven on his travels and from a yard that excels in peaking them for this race (Timeform did an excellent feature on this recently), there's a strong case for thinking his European form is better than that of US-based Flintshire. Of those at bigger prices, it wouldn't be a massive shock if the tail-flashing Da Big Hoss ran into a place such is the form he comes into the race in.

Mile

Trends aren't for everyone but it's worth pointing out that UK and Irish horses are 0/52 in this race since 1995 which is a knock to the chances of both Limato and Alice Springs. In terms of ability, Limato is up there with any of these but it's all over shorter trips and the idea of six- and seven-furlong horses excelling around the tight bends of this race looks a myth when you see the past winners; most were milers through and through. He's priced as if fully effective at this trip and is worth opposing at current odds though the US Tote might present a different picture on Saturday. Alice Springs is a more likely winner but has competed only against fillies thus far and might be flattered by her Leopardstown win which is her best piece of form.

Tepin bids for a second success in a race where repeat winners are common though she has had different prep this season. Even so, she looks to have been trained for this since her Queen Anne win (strong form) and though beaten last time it looked a case that a front-runner was given too much rope. With her you are getting an inflated price about a mare whose defeat last time is easily explained, and that makes her a bet.

Recommended Bets
Back Hydrangea @ 7.06/1 in the Juvenile Fillies Turf
Back Queen's Trust in the Filly & Mare Turf (US Tote odds)
Back Highland Reel @ 4.57/2 in the Turf
Back Tepin @ 3.7511/4 in the Mile