Sean O'Sullivan of the Betfair Trading team arms you with all the info you need ahead of the 2016 Breeders' Cup meeting...
The Breeders' Cup, what's the deal?
It's the self-proclaimed "World Championships of Horse Racing" and brings together horsemen from around the globe. Thirteen races ran over dirt and turf over two days with a total of $28 million in prize money on offer.
How do UK/European runners traditionally fare?
Historically the Europeans would always fare very well in turf races and there is quite a roll of honour of European horses going back over the years such as Found, Magician, St Nicholas Abbey, Conduit, Goldikova and Midday. The Breeders' Cup Turf in particular has been a cash cow for European-trained horses as they have won 10 of the last 13 runnings. On the dirt as you would expect the home team dominate year-in, year-out, European trainers have won one of the last 22 classics; Ravens Pass in 2008 and that was when the race was run on an all-weather surface.
Santa Anita hosts this year, what sort of horse wins at the track?
On the dirt, course and distance form is preferable but more important is a horse with tactical speed. Santa Anita's dirt historically favours horses that race close to the pace and horses held up can often struggle to get involved. On the turf it's all about horses with form over firm ground. There's a saying that "it never rains in California" and this can certainly be seen in the usual condition of the turf track which has been riding like a car park of late. The turf track is an easy mile on a tight oval and as a result preference would always be for a horse stepping up in trip than those stepping down.
If a UK horse has all-weather form, will they be OK on the dirt?
Not necessarily, while all-weather would have more similarities to dirt than turf they are still two different surfaces. Kickback from the dirt would be like nothing all-weather horses have ever experienced and many can struggle with it. Breeding would traditionally offer the best clue if a horse will take to dirt
Is European turf form comparable?
In short: no. While there are of course exceptions it is rare enough that turf form translates well to dirt, due to the contrasting nature of races run on them. Again breeding offers clues to the likelihood to a horse acting on dirt but there are no guarantees they will translate the same level of form as they had on turf. Gleneagles in last year's Classic is a recent example off an outstanding turf horse that quite simply hasn't gone a yard on dirt
Who are the US jockeys to follow?
The jockeys that seem to hit the board year in year out would be the likes of Mike Smith, Javier Castellano, John Velazquez, Irad Ortiz and Victor Espinoza. They'll all get the leg ups on some obvious nice types. One jockey who has really impressed this year though is Florent Geroux, French-born as the name would suggest, he has established himself as - in my opinion - the best turf rider based in the US. He is excellent tactically and a very good judge of pace, he'll be worth following in particular in the juvenile turf races on the Friday
What should I be looking out for from the home team this year?
Arrogate is by far the most interesting runner of the meeting for me. The Breeders' Cup Classic second favourite broke the track record at Saratoga in the Travers when a 13 length winner on his first start in a grade 1, and he's been kept off since to race fresh by last year's winning trainer. He'll have the small task of beating the best rated horse in the world in California Chrome who hasn't been beaten in six races this year. If both show up in top form it could be a Classic for the ages.
In the Juvenile Fillies, Daddys Lil Darling is one that could be overlooked in the betting. An impressive grade 2 winner two starts back, she was a massively eye-catching second on her latest start in a grade 1 at Keeneland. Drawn 14 she was trapped wide all the way round off an unsuitably sedate pace, but did exceptionally well to rally to close to second. Off a faster pace she can be seen to better effect.
Which UK/IRE/European runners are making the trip, and have they got a chance?
As I write there is a strong contingent set to make the trip, several which you would expect to be very competitive. In the Juvenile Fillies Turf, Joseph O'Brien will have his first BC runner as a trainer with Intricately whose Group 1 Moyglare win at the Curragh has had the form franked.
The US division here look below par and I fully expect this pot to return to Europe. Defending BC Turf Champion Found will step out to defend her crown but her trainer has a worthy second-string in Highland Reel who brings some exceptional middle distance form to the race this year. Already a winner in the US as a three-year-old, conditions will be perfect for him and he looks well worth keeping onside. In the Breeders' Cup Mile Limato looks likely to take on reigning Mile and Queen Anne winner Tepin in what looks a very hot race. I think with firm ground at this track he'll have too much toe for her and looks a fair price in the betting.
Punting strategy - your best bet and best lay of the meeting
The bet of the meeting for me is Limato in the mile, as mentioned above I think he ll relish conditions unlike Tepin who possibly needs some cut in the ground.
Lay of the meeting for me is Songbird in the Breeders' Cup Distaff on the Friday night. While she is 11 from 11 and no doubt a superstar she has never faced elder horses and will meet two superstar mares in Beholder and Stellar Wind. Songbird will have to be all she's cracked up to be and possibly more to beat them and at the likely prices she looks well worth taking on.