Alan Dudman heads to Ayr in search of a winner on Monday, and he's hoping the weather forecast is correct for one of his selections in Scotland...
"They went a good pace in that and he stayed on well up the Hamilton hill to snatch third. Any sort of replication of that run with his favoured conditions should see him thereabouts."
Duchess can rule at her favourite venue
15:05 Ayr - Back Royal Duchess @ 8.07/1
I am hoping the front-running Be Bold adopts his usual tactics of "catch me if you can" in this, as my selection Royal Duchess does need a bit of pace to aim at.
She is a real course and distance specialist with four wins at the track, and arrives into the race in good nick after finishing second back in May from a mark of 65. She was given a fair bit to do in that Ayr contest, but that's her style, she usually picks up well at the business end and needs a bit of fortune.
That effort represented a drop in grade for the mare, as she competed at a better level last term and has performed well in 0-75 company.
Jockey Connor Murtagh claims a handy 5lb and she acts on any ground.
A Poe victory will make it the happiest day
16:10 Ayr - Back Edgar Allan Poe @ 6.05/1
With rain forecast on Monday, I am hoping the surface changes with a description to "soft" in there somewhere, as Edgar Allan Poe is best served with cut in the ground. Indeed, it looks as though a few people have cottoned on to his desire for rain - as he was cut last night on the Sportsbook from 7/1 to 11/2.
Please let there be a few showers.
His standout effort this season came at Hamilton last month, and that was a stronger grade than he'll be racing in today. They went a good pace in that and he stayed on well up the Hamilton hill to snatch third. Any sort of replication of that run with his favoured conditions should see him thereabouts.
Indeed, he's a strong stayer at today's trip and is well handicapped from 66 - especially as he finished second on two occasions last term from 69.
Alan's Bets of the Day - P/L
This week so far: -3.0
Previous week: +5.25
Back Royal Duchess 0.5pt @ 8.07/1 in the 15:05 at Ayr
Back Edgar Allan Poe 0.5pt @ 6.05/1 in the 16:10 at Ayr