Bets of the Day: A Low Key affair at Kempton

Kempton Hurdle race may not be ideal for Silviniaco Conti
Kempton Hurdle race may not be ideal for Silviniaco Conti

Alan is looking to get back on track again today after a disappointing Sunday, with two selections from an interesting Kempton card...


"In contrast to the top weight, the David Pipe trained eight-year-old is race fit"

14:30 Kempton - Low Key @ 4.57/2 Exchange.

14:30 Kempton - Low Key @ 4.57/2 Exchange.

The race of the day has to be at Kempton where Paul Nicholls runs Silviniano Conti. No stranger to the course, having won two King George's, but today he is running over the smaller obstacles.

Nicholls has said that he wants to get a run into the nine-year-old before attempting to win the Betfair Chase at Haydock later this month and you can see why, on his last four starts when he has been off the course for more than 70 days, he has lost on his reappearance. Of course they are all top quality chases, different class to this event, but it does suggest that he maybe isn't at his best coming of a break.

The entry has created quite an interesting betting heat for the five runner race, while Silviniaco is rated 16lb lower over hurdles he is still giving 12lb and upwards to his four rivals, including 22lb to Low Key.

In contrast to the top weight, the David Pipe trained eight-year-old is race fit, having won over hurdles in the summer and been in action in some very decent flat races. He won the Cesarewitch trial in September and was sent off favourite for the main event itself. It must be said though, he was disappointing in the race, finishing unplaced behind Grumeti, but off a featherweight he could be the one to take advantage IF Silviniano Conti needs the run.


15:40 Kempton - Very Noble @ 7/1 Sportsbook

I quite like the look of Very Noble in this contest at Kempton, its a shame there aren't eight runners declared as he would ideally have been an each way selection. However, at 7/1 I think he is worth taking a chance on.

Last time out Very Noble finished a distant fourth in the same race as Adam Du Breteau when he unseated four fences from home, while travelling well (it must be said). However, in that race Very Noble was sent off the 2/1 favourite with Adam Du Breteau a 7/2 chance. Today, running off the same ratings, in a similar event, Adam Du Breteau is 6/4 favourite and Very Noble 7/1, that seems a bit out to me.

I accept that previous race was at Fontwell where Very Noble is a bit of a course specialist, winning two hurdle races and a national hunt flat race at the track, but that's a significant swing in market expectations towards the favourite. Especially for a horse, that while travelling well and looking dangerous, last time out, didn't actually manage to complete the race and in his five starts so far under rules he hasn't yet managed a place.


Recommended Bets

14:30 Kempton - Low Key @ 4.57/2 Exchange.
15:40 Kempton - Very Noble @ 7/1 Sportsbook


Alan Thompson P&L 2015

Carried Forward: +10.98 pts

This week...

Staked: 8 pts (including today's bet)

Returned: 6.5 pts

Overall Profit/Loss: +9.48 pts

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