Bets of the Day: Let's raise a glass to Toast of Newbury at Southwell

Southwell's deep fibresand should be no problem for Toast of Newbury
Southwell's deep fibresand should be no problem for Toast of Newbury

Yesterday's back-to-lay selection hit the recommended lay price in running to create a free bet but just failed to get home. Alan Thompson is hoping to get the week off to a flyer with two bets from Southwell and one from the evening card at Leicester...


"One such horse in the 16.00 Southwell is Toast Of Newbury. By Captain Rio out of a Fusaichi Pegasus, this horse has ideal breeding to be a success on Southwell's surface"

Back Toast Of Newbury 16:00 Southwell each way at 10/1 Sportsbook

Toast Of Newbury has to be backed E/W in the Southwell 16:00

Southwell's deep fibresand doesn't suit every AW horse, but does suit those bred by soft ground sires or American dirt sires. One such horse in the 16.00 Southwell is Toast Of Newbury. By Captain Rio out of a Fusaichi Pegasus, this horse has ideal breeding to be a success on Southwell's surface. The fact he's yet to race on a soft surface given his pedigree is intriguing in itself but now he faces what I think are his ideal conditions we have to go in at the 10/1 each way.

The booking of Oisin Murphy is a good one and his performance last time when making the running at a breakneck pace over a mile at Chelmsford is eyecatching despite many seeing it as a poor run. That was his first run for Heather Dalton since his move from Jamie Osborne who never tried him on a soft surface despite his breeding. I'm pretty sure she'll have watched that run and his running style and thought that six furlongs at Southwell would be ideal.


Abi Scarlet another great back-to-lay candidate

Abi Scarlet, a nine time course winner, hasn't been firing of late but I still think there's plenty of room in the price to make a profitable trade on the 16:30 Southwell. Currently priced up at 4.3100/30 to back I think we can back it that price and lay in-running at 3.211/5. I say this because she looks like she will get a very easy lead and that added to a small field means she could well dominate the first four furlongs of the race.

The good thing is that both her main rivals in the race tend to track the pace but because they'll both be trying to do it at the same time they could well fight too much to catch her and allow her to lead inside the final furlong. I'm not confident Abi Scarlet can hold on but think she can take her price down to 3.211/5 and below to create a nice green book.


Pearl Ransom maybe third on adjusted ratings but at least he's in form!

A back-to-lay strategy on Pearl Ransom in the 19:15 Leicester should see us gain another nice green book. He's third in on adjusted ratings but his two main rivals, Cry Fury and Sublimation, are well out of form and the rest of the field have too much to find at the weights.

Currently available at 3.259/4 to back he has a prominent racing style which should lend itself to seeing his price quickly contract. Franny Norton does well for the stable and the ground should be ideal. In all a solid back-to-lay play.


Recommended Bets

Back Toast Of Newbury 16:00 Southwell each way at 10/1 Sportsbook
Back Abi Scarlet 16:30 Southwell at 4.3100/30 and lay in-running at 3.211/5
Back Pearl Ransom 19:15 Leicester at 3.259/4 and lay in-running at 2.01/1


Alan Thompson 2015 P/L

Staked: 5 Pts
Returned: 7.95 Pts
P/L: +2.95 Pts

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