A great day for Alan Dudman yesterday with both of his selections winning at big prices of [20.0] and [11.50]. He hopes to keep the run going with two more bets at Southwell on Tuesday...
"I think Coiste Bodhar looks a bit more solid at a larger price. He's a horse that needs them to go quick up front, so with a couple of likely pacesetters, the make-up for this handicap should suit."
With the two jumping cards at the mercy of the weather and inspections, I'll play safe and stick with the Flat racing at Southwell.
David O'Meara's Abraj Dubai was a winning tip for the column on her debut at the track last November - and she hacked up there by eight lengths. The reasoning that day was purely on pedigree as her sire Street Cry has a 27% strike rate on the surface and she's out of a Bernadini dam. She is made for the Fibresand.
She looked a canny purchase by the O'Meara team for just 10,000 guineas at the Newmarket July Sales.
However, it all went a bit skew-whiff on her handicap debut at the track last time. She was clearly fancied in the market for that 0-80, but it was a real baptism of fire taking on hardened Southwell handicappers. The race was fairly decent for the grade too, but it was a bit of a disaster.
We shouldn't write her off after one bad run, and this Novice Stakes' race looks a lot easier. I toyed with the idea of backing Betjeman as he's by Poet's Voice - a sire with a fair record at the track, but Abraj Dubai took to the surface so well on her debut run, I am prepared to give her another chance.
The 4yo has the 7lb claim of Patrick Vaughan to help, and I am hoping she can bounce back after a 57-day break.
The popular horse here will undoubtedly be Jack Blane - and the reasons are obvious. He acts on the surface, stays a bit further, and travelled nicely in a race at Southwell last time out.
He comes back down in trip and the pace forecast here looks strong, which will suit him. However, he doesn't always find in a finish and he has been beaten plenty of times from a mark in the mid-50s before. If anything, I would recommend a cheap lay in-play.
I think Coiste Bodhar looks a bit more solid at a larger price. He's a horse that needs them to go quick up front, so with a couple of likely pacesetters, the make-up for this handicap should suit. They usually go fairly hard anyway over the 6f around here.
He ran over 5f last time, but got outpaced in the wrong part of the track. He wasn't speedy enough last month to deal with Jack The Truth over the minimum either, so today's extra yardage will suit.
The 7yo has been rated higher in the past, so he can certainly win off this low mark of 52.
Alan's Bets of the Day - P/L
This week so far: +14.75
Previous week: +1.50