Alan Dudman signs off from a profitable stint in the tipping chair, and is hoping to end on a high with bets for the all-weather racing on Thursday...
"Shamshon is seriously well-treated from a mark of 81 these days, and ran well in a 0-105 in December behind Gracious John at 4/1, and he's a lot bigger in price today."
15:10 Newcastle - Back Weather Front @ [14.0]
It's difficult to dress up this 1m2f handicap as anything other than a fairly moderate race. Hardly any horse is in form, but that doesn't put me off taking a swing at something at a decent price.
Weather Front was as big as 14/1 last night on the Sportsbook, and the claims are not obvious, but then he is in the right race.
He had a bit of talent as a 3yo with James Tate, but lost his way completely. For his current trainer Karen McLintock he is now 0/10, and his latest run on the level was too bad to be true.
However, the mark has dropped accordingly, as he was rated a 75 horse back in October 2016. He's now running from 55, and this should be easier than some of the races he was in last year.
It does take a bit of a leap of faith in backing him, but he acts around Newcastle, and it looks as though he wants 1m2f these days rather than the shorter distances - as he does stay on from off the pace.
20:00 Chelmsford - Back Shamshon @ [11.0]
This 0-95 sprint over 6f has far more quality than the Newcastle contest previewed earlier, and I think the market has somewhat overlooked the chances of Shamshon here. Back him at around [11.0] or bigger for success.
He has raced for a couple of previous trainers and owners prior to his move to Stuart Williams - a handler that can do well with powerful connections' cast-offs.
Shamshon is seriously well-treated from a mark of 81 these days, and ran well in a 0-105 in December behind Gracious John at 4/1, and he's a lot bigger in price today. The pace was not a furious one there, and I don't think it suited the Williams' 7yo, as he tends to come from off the speed through horses when a race falls apart in front of him.
There is a slight doubt with him back up in trip over 6f today, as most of his racing has been at the minimum, but he looks as though he is worth a gamble at the extra yardage. It's probably why the price is a fairly decent one, and he didn't run too badly behind Foolaad last time out.
A return to Chelmsford will suit, as he has won at the Essex venue in the past.
Alan's Bets of the Day - P/L
This week so far: +16.25
Previous week: +1.50
Back Weather Front 0.5pt @ [14.0] in the 15:10 at Newcastle
Back Shamshon 0.5pt @ [11.0] in the 20:00 at Chelmsford