Alan Dudman's latest tipping spell in the chair ends today, and he is hoping to finish on a high with a pair of winning selections at Ludlow and Chelmsford on Thursday...
"He was green on good to soft ground and lacked some know-how on that occasion. It didn't help his cause racing without any cover in the wide open expanses of HQ."
15:00 Ludlow - Kapstadt can jump into the frame
Kapastadt is a fine horse with tremendous versatility, but I recall backing and putting him up twice for this column on the Flat - and he finished second on both occasions at Chester. Of course he won on his following outing at Newmarket at 9/1 when I left him alone - but I am in a forgiving mood.
Although another 1.011/100 defeat might be hard to take this week.
Ian Willliams' horse lines up in this 0-135 Novices' Handicap Chase, and he is well treated from a mark of 127 given his hurdling exploits.
This will be his second run over fences, and I expect better in terms of the jumping following his chase debut at Stratford. He blundered at the fifth with a less than fluent display in a contest over 2m4f on good to soft ground. He drops back to 2m today on a decent surface - and those conditions will suit him better.
He's always been the sort of horse that likes a pace to run at to help with his rhythm, and Ludlow on good ground over the minimum should suit. He rates a fair price at 9/2 on the Sportsbook considering his ability from his mark.
Rain is forecast on Thursday, hopefully it stays away.
18:15 Chelmsford - Burrows to work his magic again
Finding a second bet on the day's action wasn't easy, but we head to Chelmsford on Thursday night and again go with the second-time-out Owen Burrows angle, which secured a winner for the column on Tuesday.
Burrows sends Mutanaqel to the Essex venue following a debut run at Newmarket. He was green on good to soft ground and lacked some know-how on that occasion. It didn't help his cause racing without any cover in the wide open expanses of HQ.
He was beaten nine lengths at Newmarket, but he was behind subsequent Autumn Stakes winner Ghaiyyath. The third Bombyx has boosted the form with a nice victory at Leicester - so I expect a fair bit of improvement from this juvenile.
This looks a warm race, with William Haggas, Sir Michael Stoute and Hugo Palmer all sending runners.
Drawn on the inside in 4 and bred for slightly further, we might see a different proposition here.
Thursday's Recommended Bets
Back Kapstadt 0.5pt @ 9/2 Sportsbook price in the 15:00 at Ludlow
Back Mutanaqel 0.5pt @ 6.205/1 in the 18:15 at Chelmsford
Alan's Bets of the Day - P/L
This week so far: +4.75pts
Previous week: +0.27pts