Alan Dudman is hoping to bow out with a big price winner at Southwell on Thursday - and has two bets for the day's action on the Fibresand...
"Mick Easterby's seven-year-old is a better horse on the All-Weather, and he's now down to 85 from his December 2016 rating of 95."
13:45 Southwell - Back Bosham @ 19.50
If Fibresand sprints are your thing, this looks a cracker on Thursday, despite being 'only' a 0-85 handicap.
More than half the field of 14 have won around here, and track form on the unique surface is such a big plus. However, I am very tempted with the 19.50 price on the Exchange for speedster and course debutant Bosham. You might also want to consider him in the Place market, especially at 4.03/1 in the 4 Places.
He has to prove himself at Southwell against some specialists at the course, but he is by Shamardal, whose progeny go pretty well around here. He is quick, and this is one of the fastest opening few furlongs around.
Bosham hasn't had much of a turf season, and you certainly wouldn't be excited about an abysmal effort when last seen at Beverley. However, that was back in September, and he's had a nice break since then - which is good for a sprinter to freshen up.
Mick Easterby's seven-year-old is a better horse on the All-Weather, and he's now down to 85 from his December 2016 rating of 95. He was good enough to win at Chelmsford in a 0-95 over a year-and-a-half ago, so hopefully he can translate some of his Chelmsford form to here.
Very rarely would I put up a newcomer as a bet, but Southwell is a track where you can use sires as a guide, and that's why the 5/1 Sportsbook price on Abraj Dubai is worth considering.
Firstly, this race is a bit of a shocker. This 7f maiden consists of a couple of horses rated 44 and 23, with the standard-setter officially on 68. The favourite Take The High Road is rather obvious for in-form Keith Dalgleish - who picked the horse up from John Oxx recently and this will be his first run for the Scottish yard.
Take The High Road was beaten behind World War last time in Ireland, and World War would struggle to beat his own shadow on most days. It took him 11 attempts to get off the mark, so that price of the fav looks short enough at 8/11.
On pedigree, Abraj Dubai is absolutely made for Southwell. She's by Street Cry - a sire who does very well here, with the dam by Bernadini and half-sisters to Fantastic Light and Hi Dubai.
I would be very surprised if she didn't take to this surface.
She never made the track for Godolphin and was a cast-off for just 10,000 Guineas. But I wouldn't be too bothered about that, not many will last in the blue if they haven't run, and I recall Tropics being a Darley reject many years ago.
In a bad race, she's bred for the job. Hopefully she is fit enough to go well. Backing newcomers isn't for everybody, but the price compensates.
Thursday's Recommended Bets
Back Bosham 0.5pt @ 19.50 in the 13:45 at Southwell
Back Bosham 0.5pt @ 4.03/1 for 4 Places in the 13:45 at Southwell
Back Abraj Dubai 0.5pt @ 5/1 Sportsbook price in the 14:45 at Southwell
Alan's Bets of the Day - P/L
This week so far: -7.50pts
Previous week: +3.75pts