Alan Dudman looks to Scotland in search of a winner on Sunday, and the price of Ghostly Arc looks tempting in one of the handicaps on the card...
"Noel Wilson's five-year-old made his comeback for the season recently at Carlisle - over a trip too short and he wasn't beaten very far. That came in a 0-70, and that's the same grade this afternoon."
There's rain in the Musselburgh forecast and I am very much hoping it arrives to aid the chances of Oriental Lilly. She's bred by Johnnie Delta Racing, and her trainer Jim Goldie handled both this horse's father and mother. Her sire Orientor liked the mud, and so did one of his siblings - the much-loved Jack Dexter. There's every chance today's selection could be better if it gets wet.
She raced over course-and-distance last time in exactly the same grade of 0-75. She missed the break (which is a common problem), but she was outpaced. I am inclined to put that down to the quick ground.
The three-year-old stayed on from the back, and that's something she's done in races at Doncaster and Thirsk this season. She hasn't built on her unlucky handicap debut earlier in July at Haydock - and I get the feeling she's a bit better than what we have seen so far.
I like runners who set the pace at Musselburgh, and for this staying contest over 1m6f, the 14/1 Sportsbook price on Ghostly Arc is too big to turn down.
He was second in this race from a mark of 61 last year, and he's 1lb lower to go one better. Rain is forecast for Sunday, and Ghostly Arc's run in the contest last season came on officially good - but he seems to act on slightly softer going.
Noel Wilson's five-year-old made his comeback for the season recently at Carlisle - over a trip too short and he wasn't beaten very far. That came in a 0-70, and that's the same grade this afternoon.
For a pacesetter who acts around the track, he looks a bet at his current price. I initially wanted to back Traditional Dancer as he is seriously well-handicapped. However, he is a touch quirky and I would want a bigger price than his 4/1.
Alan's Bets of the Day - P/L
This week so far: -2.00
Previous week: +3.91