Alan Dudman starts the new week with a bet in the staying race at Ayr, and he sides with an unexposed Godolphin filly running at Wolverhampton on Monday evening...
"Dubai Elegance's dam also won an artificial surface, and I expect her to improve a fair bit towards the end of the campaign. Her mark could be lenient with the way she has travelled to date."
Not many trainers can count living out in Leningrad (before the change to St. Petersburg) whilst studying Russian on their CVs - but Jedd O'Keeffe can. I found that out in an interview during the yard's golden spell recently. Hopefully O'Keeffe can bag a winner at Ayr on Monday.
In fact, looking at the seven day forecast for Ayr, they would probably swap the weather for the Russian variety. It is scheduled to rain all week - but that should play to the strengths of Silva Eclipse - who looks an out-and-out stayer who acts with cut. I associate O'Keeffe's horses with soft ground anyway.
He was progressive upped in trip last term, and reeled off three handicap wins from marks of 65, 70 and 77. The four-year-old hasn't been in the same form this year, but he's been in some good events including a hot 2m handicap at Newcastle at the start of the season. There are also excuses from his Carlisle run (too keen), and his effort at York (a muddling pace).
There looks to be two confirmed front runners here in the shape of the younger pair Addicted To You and Tor - but that should help Silva Eclipse, who can be keen and a bit quirky. A real proper test should suit.
He should be able to win from his current mark of 78, and blinkers come on for the first time. He should fare better today.
Dubai Elegance makes her reappearance for the year for Saeed bin Suroor, and from a mark of 80 in this 1m1f handicap, she rates a big player.
As you would expect for a Godolphin runner, she has an excellent pedigree, and she could be one of those horses in the blue that could simply be better on the all-weather.
She hasn't been since a slightly below-par run in November 2016 at Newcastle. She travelled very well over 7f but flattened out. I doubt that was due to stamina, as her mother stayed 1m2f plus. Maybe the fact this is quite a late return to action for the year suggests that she might have had a little problem. Her trainer runs her over 1m1f today - so he must feel she'll stay.
Her maiden win at Chelmsford came with a cute front-running ride from a wide draw - and she has the widest draw of all in 10 today. However, in Oisin Murphy, she has an excellent rider from the front in these all-weather races, so hopefully he can get her across nice and early.
Dubai Elegance's dam also won an artificial surface, and I expect her to improve a fair bit towards the end of the campaign. Her mark could be lenient with the way she has travelled to date.
Monday's Recommended Bets
Alan's Bets of the Day - P/L
This week so far: -3.00
Previous week: +1.00