Bets Of The Day: Smith's Warbler to capitalise on falling mark at Carlisle

Alan is hoping for a jumps' winner on Monday at Carlisle
Alan is hoping for a jumps' winner on Monday at Carlisle

An unlucky day for Alan yesterday as Third Intention was chinned at 1.30 in-running to finish second. He is hoping for better with Monday's selections at Southwell and Carlisle...

"Cut in the ground suits as they can go a bit too quick for him on decent terrain - but he is attractively handicapped to run well from his mark."

Back Dartford Warbler @ 6.25/1 in the 15:10 at Carlisle

12:40 Southwell - Back Swiss Vinnare @ 5/1

Third Intention's second yesterday - beaten despite trading at 1.3030/100 in-running - continued a very frustrating fortnight for Alan's last two Bets Of The Day stints. Third Intention goes in the club with recent runner-up selections Black Art - who was beaten at 1.271/4, Pearl Spectre 1.101/10, Kapstadt 1.261/4 and Kenny The Captain 1.011/100. Hopefully those near-misses can be turned around, and we start off at Southwell for Monday.

This 1m3f Maiden is a weak race, with two of the contenders officially rated 68 and 70. So it's not a worldy standard by any means.

The other factor is handling the unique surface, and there's a fair bit of hope that Swiss Vinnare might improve for his first run on the Fibresand.

One of his relations was Poppy Bond, who had a good record around here with two victories and two seconds, and for that reason the 5/1 on the Sportsbook is worth snapping up.

He steps up in trip today, which is another plus given he has been outpaced in a pair of 1m races at Chelmsford - and he stayed on well on debut.

Nobody wanted this horse as a foal, as he didn't sell for just £580, but he has a reasonable pedigree and this is a poor contest. The added bonus of Nicola Currie claiming 7lb is also good news.

15:10 Carlisle - Back Dartford Warbler @ 6.05/1

I was close to putting another two selections in from Southwell, but Sue Smith's Dartford Warbler is very well handicapped over fences, and his price of around 6.05/1 is more than fair.

He hasn't won for a while - hence the sliding mark, but he battled last time at Uttoxeter over 3m to finish a good second behind Cobolobo. That winner is probably going to improve in better races, so there was nothing wrong with Dartford Warbler's effort there.

Last year he was running off a mark in the low 120s - today he is pitched into this race from a figure of 102.

Most of his career he has raced over today's trip of 2m4f, so the drop back in distance from Uttoxeter for this stiff finish shouldn't be a problem. He has form at Carlisle too - with a couple of wins at the track over hurdles in his younger days.

Cut in the ground suits as they can go a bit too quick for him on decent terrain - but he is atttractively handicapped to run well from his mark.

Monday's Recommended Bets

Back Swiss Vinnare 0.5pt @ 5/1 Sportsbook price in the 12:40 Southwell
Back Dartford Warbler 0.5pt @ 6.25/1 in the 15:10 at Carlisle

Alan's Bets of the Day - P/L

This week so far: -3.00pts

Previous week: +3.75pts

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