A 6/1 winner yesterday at Windsor (and a non-runner at Wolverhampton) keeps the column rolling this week, and Alan Dudman hopes to continue his good run with three win selections for Wednesday...
"He should have won previously at Catterick, but he was too green in the early part of the race (over six furlongs), and flew home too late. With three runs under his belt, he looked far more professional last time, and he rates a good prospect."
Home Cummins hasn't been seen since running in the 2014 Rockfel, but her position at 7/1 on the Sportsbook on Tuesday evening was fairly encouraging (even though it looks an open race).
The three-year-old Rip Van Winkle filly was a progressive juvenile last term, winning races at Doncaster and Redcar. She earned a tilt at Lucida et al - but she was 33/1 in that Group 2, and wasn't up to it at Newmarket last season.
This is more realistic, going handicapping from a mark of 90 over a trip that should suit (stepping up from seven furlongs).
A few might point to her absence, but on the other hand she is the freshest in the field. Trained by the best pound-for-pound trainer in the business Richard Fahey, I'm hoping she can continue the good run for the yard.
18:55 Kempton - Back Change The Game
Anyone who witnessed Change The Game's woeful performance at Pontefract last time will be wondering what an earth he is doing with the word 'back' next to his name. Read on...
The expensive son of Distorted Humor flopped at odds of 2/9F in Yorkshire, and he was beaten a long way out. Was it attitude? Was it trip? Certainly there were both factors, but I am taking the view (in line with his pedigree) that he didn't like the ground. Officially Pontefract's card started with good to firm in the description, and yet jockeys who rode in the race were quoted as saying it was on the easy side - the horses ran like that.
I think he hated the ground. He's a strapping sort with two dirt winners in his pedigree, and the fact Kempton is riding slow should play to his strengths as he could be a grinding style of US horse.
He made a good impression on debut at Wolverhampton (when green), and if he hadn't run at Ponty, he would be around 7/4. I'm ignoring his latest run, and I'd like to see rider Kevin Stott do an 'East Indies' and just power from the front, dropping back in trip to a mile.
19:55 - Kempton - Back Grey Morning
The penny is dropping with Grey Morning, who stormed to success on his third start at Musselburgh recently, and he has to be of interest going handicapping from a mark of 82.
He should have won previously at Catterick, but he was too green in the early part of the race (over six furlongs), and flew home too late. With three runs under his belt, he looked far more professional last time, and he rates a good prospect.
He could still have plenty of more progression to come, which cannot be said for a few of his rivals.
Wednesday's Recommended Bets
Back Home Cummins @ 7/1 Sportsbook price in the 17:25 at Newmarket
Back Change The Game @ 4.507/2 in the 18:55 at Kempton
Back Grey Morning @ 3.505/2 in the 19:55 at Kempton
Weekly P /L (one point each bet excluding advised in-running trades)
Last week total: + 2.95
This week total: +10.50
Running total: +27.45