Count Otto was another second yesterday for Alan Dudman, with the horse beaten at 1.031/33 in-play. He turns his attention to Wednesday's card at Kempton with two big prices to follow...
"The filly does stay on well in her races and her best form has all come on the artificial surfaces, so we can put a line through her two turf outings."
Simcock can continue decent spell with outsider
19:55 Kempton - Back Kitabaat @ 12.011/1
The seconds continue, and the defeat of Count Otto was a blow with his in-running price yesterday. For Wednesday, we are playing at two big prices that can hopefully hit the frame.
I like the look of the Kempton card on Wednesday evening, and will be looking out for National Treasure in the opener at 17:55. Unfortunately he isn't really my sort of price at 2.01/1, but one that is certainly in the range is Kitabaat. There was support for him last night on the Sportsbook too from 14/1 to 10/1.
There are plenty of risks attached but the race looks open. Kitabaat has left Owen Burrows and makes his debut for David Simcock tonight, and his team are in good form over the last fortnight with eight winners at a strike-rate of 30%.
This will also be his first run since disappointing at Sandown earlier this summer, but he has gone well from slightly shorter breaks in the past, so perhaps we shouldn't be too negative at the 97-days off.
If he can improve for his Sandown outing he could be a player here from 87 at a big price. He holds some fairly decent form, in particular in two runs at Ascot behind Blue Mist and Racing Country in 2018. Going back to his two-year-old days, he beat Sevenna Star.
He clearly hasn't stood much racing this far, and with the hood up today alongside Dylan Hogan claiming a bit of weight, he might be able to outrun his odds.
If the eight runners stand their ground, he is worth backing in the Place market too.
Margarson filly well worth an interest at massive odds
It's "big price corner" for my two bets today, and with trainer George Margarson running into a bit of form with a couple of winners recently, it might be worth chancing Painted Dream here at a huge price.
She has caught the eye in a handful of runs, including her reappearance at Wolverhampton at 33/1. She met some trouble in that but stayed on nicely, and on evidence of that effort, there is certainly a race in her.
She also finished second over course and distance last winter, and that was behind Wedding Date, who was rated 83 at the time and has been running well this season from higher marks. She did well too in that race, as the winner got the run on the field, and Painted Dream had to come from further back.
The filly does stay on well in her races and her best form has all come on the artificial surfaces, so we can put a line through her two turf outings.
Her draw in 12 is not ideal, but with her style I imagine she'll be dropped in anyway. Her rating has lowered this term from 70 to 65 and she looks overpriced to me.
Alan Dudman's P&L
2019 Overall: +2.00
This week so far....
*All bets to a 0.5pt stake unless stated otherwise
Back Kitabaat Win and Place @ BSP in the 19:55 at Kempton
Back Painted Dream each-way @ 25/1 Sportsbook price in the 20:55 at Kempton