Alan Dudman drew a blank yesterday, but is hoping for two winners from his selections at Ayr on Tuesday...
"Casual Cavalier struck lucky last time, as likely winner that day The Herds Garden departed two out. However, every horse deserves a bit of luck, and he did hack up previously over course and distance by 14 lengths, and he also beat Misfits back in November."
15:20 Ayr - Oscar's looks the prospect against older rivals
This 3m handicap hurdle could be a veterans' race, as the evergreen 14-year-old See Double You heads the pack as top weight, with the other golden oldies aged at 12, 11 and 10.
Step forward the young gun, and it's the mare Oscar's Prospect. At five years of age, she has the most progression to come, and her effort last time out over 2m6f at Newcastle suggested today's longer trip will really suit. So did her run at Kelso; a race where she plugged away on ground described as good to soft.
She shapes like a proper test in deep conditions will improve her, and that's no surprise considering her dam is a half-sister to Vinnie Roe.
Jockey Joe Colliver rides for Middleham trainer Jedd O'Keeffe, and from bottom weight armed with a mark of 102, she has got to be of interest against older rivals - especially receiving so much weight.
If you are looking to trade a horse, then the tricky Plus Jamais is one to key in the lay. He stays and loves deep ground, and this will be his 21st run at the venue. However, he often throws away a chance and has five odds-on defeats in-running to his name. I prefer him making the pace - as he dotted up here in 2015 and jumped really well.
However, I can't bring myself to back him to win, but I can with Oscar's Prospect from her mark.
15:50 Ayr - Cavalier to add to decent win record
This looks a tricky little race, but Casual Cavalier is in form and can still be backed at around 5/2. The price of the Lucinda Russell-trained favourite Mumgos Debut is very attractive to lay at around 2.01/1, as he will need to pull out a personal best from his current mark, and that's the reason I want to stick with George Bewley's runner.
He is still relatively lightly-raced as a 9yo, and boasts a strike rate of 50% over fences with three victories from six.
Casual Cavalier struck lucky last time, as likely winner that day The Herds Garden departed two out. However, every horse deserves a bit of luck, and he did hack up previously over course and distance by 14 lengths, and he also beat Misfits back in November. He probably had a bit more left in the tank that day.
Bewley has called him bone idle in the past, but the cheekpieces have galvanised him for his last three runs, and Bewley must be convinced he is a reformed character, as he recently said: "He tries very hard at the end of a race."
The fact he acts in soft ground and stays further than today's trip is a big plus round here, and I am hoping he can turn over the favourite.
Tuesday's Recommended Bets
Back Oscar's Prospect 1pt @ 3.4012/5 in the 15:20 at Ayr
Back Casual Cavalier 1pt @ 3.45 in the 15:50 at Ayr
Alan's Bets of the Day - P/L
This week so far: +1.5pts
Previous week: -2.5pts