Bets Of The Day: Drop in trip the key for Invade's chances

Alan's two selections run at Lingfield on Thursday
Alan's two selections run at Lingfield on Thursday

Alan Dudman signs off from his latest seven day tipping stint, and picks two selections for Lingfield's card on Thursday...


"5lb claiming jockey Aaron Jones will be riding, and he guided her to success to land her maiden (crucially over six furlongs). Armed with a plum draw on Thursday and dropping back down to the minimum trip, she can outrun her odds."

Back Invade @ 9.08/1 in the 16:20 at Lingfield

15:45 Lingfield - Hedger can net an all-weather winner

Franco's Secret finished second behind Justice First at Kempton recently, but I favour him to turn the tables on Thursday as the pair meet again in a 0-85 handicap. He was only beaten by head, but armed with a 2lb pull in the weights and a return to Lingfield; he can gain his third victory at the Surrey venue.

There's a school of thought that suggests Franco's Secret wants a strongly-run mile for his ideal set-up. Yes, that can suit the five-year-old, but he landed a race at Lingfield back in 2015 with a blistering turn of foot off the final bend to show he's not one-dimensional. He seems to run well here, and has bagged a couple of course and distance victories from five attempts.

Peter Hedger's horse has displayed a really consistent record since 2014 too, and there aren't many bad runs since then.

He's the sort of honest customer that will run to his level on a regular basis (the racing equivalent to Frank Lampard), and from his current mark of 78, he can go close in a tricky looking handicap.

His usual cheekpieces will be replaced with a visor for Thursday, and whilst it might help bring some improvement, I prefer the angle of him returning to a venue where he can produce one big kick at the end of the race (something he has done twice before to win). He idled at Kempton last time, but things should be different today.


16:20 Lingfield - Take advantage of large Invade odds

Sometimes a horse can flummox you. Well me certainly.

The Stuart Williams-trained Invade runs in the 16:20 at Lingfield, and trying to work out the four-year-old's best trip is not the easiest. She has raced over six, seven and eight furlongs, and gave the impression from her first few career runs that a mile would be her optimum. The four-year-old would get behind and come under pressure, and then finish strongly. But I think she has the makings of a sprinter.

In two recent runs she has travelled very nicely (and broke well too). That was certainly the case at Wolverhampton (7f) last time, but succumbed to stronger stayers. I am yet to be convinced she sees out a mile - having watched her over that trip at Chelmsford in her previous start. She just doesn't get home over that distance despite her 'pushed along' style on occasions.

The fact she has traded shorter in those two runs mentioned, highlights she can travel like a horse ahead of her current mark of 64.

5lb claiming jockey Aaron Jones will be riding, and he guided her to success to land her maiden (crucially over six furlongs). Armed with a plum draw on Thursday and dropping back down to the minimum trip, she can outrun her odds of 9.08/1.


Thursday's Recommended Bets (half point each)

Back Franco's Secret @ 4/1 Sportsbook price in the 15:45 at Lingfield
Back Invade @ 9.08/1 in the 16:20 at Lingfield


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