A close call yesterday, with one selection beaten at 1.081/12 in-running. Alan Dudman prepares to sign off from his latest seven-day stint with a small profit and a couple of horses for Thursday...
"But Dalia Pour Moi has a furlong extra to contend with and a better field too. If he's keen in a deep race, it is with throwing in a short price lay to get him beat."
Well this character is becoming a bit of a direct debit horse. Furiously Fast is the name, but he's anything but. He has featured in this column before, where I mentioned the horse wants a trip and stamina test.
He runs at Southwell on Thursday, and he'll be trying the surface for the second time having created quite a good impression on debut in 2014. He performed well on that occasion - very green, but encouraging.
Back then he held a Group 1 entry, and of course he's a million miles away from that and it's been slow progress, but he could be well handicapped from a mark of 67 here.
He has a lot in his favour; a good draw, he acts on the surface and he is slowly improving in handicaps. His last run at Windsor over the extended 1m3f was still a bit sharp for him, but I envisage a good test with him plugging on dourly at the end of the race.
Being one of the batch of three-year-olds in this handicap, he also receives a bit of weight. I do like the angle of him reverting to this surface, and a price of 6/1 is worth taking.
14:30 Ludlow - Keen nature could cost Hobbs' grey
As I've said before in this column, the key to gaining a successful short price lay is that you have to think the horse can win. I'm speaking from experience and hard knocks; with three of my selections getting chinned into second at odds-on this week - including Algernon Pazham yesterday at 1.081/12.
Of course, Dalia Pour Moi can win this, as the grey created such a good impression on his debut at Wetherby. He was extremely keen, but went agonisingly close to beating Mustmeetalady on that occasion (remarkable under the circumstances considering his refusal to settle). The latter has gone on to perform well in a 0-150 at Carlisle - so the run in Yorkshire looks pretty decent form.
However, there are all manner of potential improvers in this race from good yards, and Always Lion (who has smart bumper form) nearly persuaded me for a win bet.
But Dalia Pour Moi has a furlong extra to contend with and a better field too. If he's keen in a deep affair, it is with throwing in a short price lay to get him beat.
Thursday's Recommended Bets
Back Furiously Fast @ 6/1 Sportsbook price in the 12:20 at Southwell (half point)
Lay Dalia Pour Moi @ 1.3030/100 in-running in the 14:30 at Ludlow
Profit and loss since column launch (one point each bet excluding advised in-running trades)
Last week total: + 5.50
This week total: + 3.90
Running total: +26.35