Castle Hill Cassie scored at 5.04/1 yesterday for Alan Dudman, and he's got two more selections for a decent day of racing at Chester and Haydock...
"The other angle is that he has really flourished over hurdles and has taken his mark to 135 in that sphere. I am convinced there is more to come on the level. He stays, is in good form and runs from a winnable rating with a liking for the track."
As the Dear John theme tune once sounded: by the time you read this all of the 6/1 on Parliamentarian will be gone. OK, maybe not quite those words, but this horse was positive on the Sportsbook last night.
I think he is the likeliest winner, and he is the ideal Godolphin horse to hit his straps over a new trip today. Indeed, he tries 2m for the first time this afternoon, and this could be the start of a big season.
The four-year-old won a nice staying handicap over 1m6f at Sandown last term from 83, he beat the Sir Mark Prescott-trained St Michel. He (St Michel) latterly went off as favourite for the Cesarewitch and ran off 112 on his final start. With more to come over a new distance, the chance is plain to see from a rating of 90. After all, he has an excellent pedigree, and looks just the type his trainer Charlie Appleby does well with.
He was niggled in that Sandown race, and he promises to be even better over a proper trip. First-time-out presents no problems either, as he scored at Hamilton on his debut run for 2016.
The rain might present a problem judged on one poor run last term at Salsibury, but that might have been down to a couple of hard races rather than the surface, as he seemed to act on soft when racing on his debut. I wouldn't totally rule out him acting on soft, although he certainly likes good to firm.
With rain forecast for the weekend, the predicted showers make Saturday's racing on the tricky side, but one horse that wouldn't mind any rain floating around is Kapstadt.
Although I have no worries about him on decent ground, one of his best performances on the Flat came last season at Nottingham on soft. He made the running and quickened away well in a 0-85 handicap - and he hosed up by seven lengths.
Those with good memories will recall I tipped him in my last stint for Chester's May meeting. He finished second over course and distance and ran really well, unfortunately the winner Storm King got a brilliant ride from the front and Kapstadt just couldn't peg him back. He runs off the same mark of 87 here, and he is clearly in great nick.
The other angle is that he has really flourished over hurdles and has taken his mark to 135 in that sphere. I am convinced there is more to come on the level. He stays, is in good form and runs from a winnable rating with a liking for the track. He has a lot in his favour other than the dreaded draw!
Alan's Bets of the Day - P/L
This week so far: +1.50pts
Previous week: +7.50pts