Alan Dudman gained a winner with Tyrsal yesterday. Bank Holiday Monday presents some tricky cards, so our man heads to Newcastle with two win selections for the early-starting all-weather fixture...
"I like the fact he is unexposed on the all-weather with just three starts, and he is well-treated from a mark of 67 - especially given he ran rather well over course-and-distance in June. Kenny The Captain was caught a little wide on that occasion - but he showed he acted at the track."
I outlined earlier this week regarding Newcastle's all-weather surface, that you need a horse that will see out the trip there. My tip that day was Gold Show, and ultimately she wasn't good enough. I am hoping Richard Fahey's Temerity however will be a different proposition on Monday - as she goes handicapping for the first time.
The framing of this race suits her perfectly, as she has already beaten today's favourite Permian (at 15/8) by three-and-a-half lengths at Ayr earlier in the season. They lock horns again, with Temerity receiving plenty of weight, and also has the beauty of the brilliant Adam McNamara's claim. At her price of 11/4 on the Sportsbook, that is too big.
The victory at Ayr over seven furlongs came in testing conditions, and I don't mind that; as I stated previously you need something with a bit of staying power to run at Newcastle. She didn't look the biggest to my eye, but she got her head down and saw out her race really strongly. The step up to one mile should be perfect from a mark of 82, and Newcastle is a track I like to punt at.
McNamara was mustard at the venue on Thursday; from six rides he finished second on three occasions, and grabbed two wins. His mount has a massive chance if taking to the surface, and the famous silks of Cheveley Park can be victorious again.
13:45 Newcastle - Kenny to be King in the north east
Kenny The Captain has been called a few names, but I am prepared to give him a go in an open-looking 0-75 handicap at 13:45.
He's had a few blips this season, but he showed enough last time at Carlisle (a track he likes) in a Lady Amateur Riders' race on the venue's big night. Emily Easterby had him in a good position, and he wasn't beaten far by Courier.
I like the fact he is unexposed on the all-weather with just three starts, and he is well-treated from a mark of 67 - especially given he ran rather well over course-and-distance in June. Kenny The Captain was caught a little wide on that occasion - but he showed he acted at the track.
He likes a galloping course (and won on the Newcastle turf in 2015) and has reportedly in the past had one or two niggling problems. I expect to see him ridden in a handy position by Rachel Richardson. The obvious danger is the lightly-raced Mazzini, but he has been beaten in two handicaps from marks of 73, and he is 2lb higher today, and is short enough at 6/4.
Monday's Recommended Bets (half point each)
Back Temerity @ 11/4 Sportsbook price in the 13:15 at Newcastle
Back Kenny The Captain @ 9.5017/2 in the 13:45 at Newcastle
Weekly P/L: -1.00
Previous week: + 5.05
2015 P/L: +20.14