In the first of a brand new daily tipping column here on Betting.Betfair, Alan Dudman is on hand to pick out his best bets for Friday, including a winner, each-way and back-to-lay...
"He needed his comeback run at Ripon and has dropped another 2lbs to a mark of 79. I'd perhaps like him drawn closer to the front runner, but with eight lining up, he represents a good bet each-way." Back Soul Brother @ 8/1 each way on Sportsbook in the 14:55 at Musselburgh
16:10 Lingfield - Ajmal Ihsaas (win)
Maidens at the All-Weather track are usually more interesting than the bog-standard Handicaps (for me anyway), and we might be able to get a price on Marco Botti's filly Ajmal Ihsaas on Friday.
The fact we have a Godolphin once-raced horse and a John Gosden runner in the line-up means her odds could be around the 5.04/1 mark, which is surely too high for a filly that showed loads of ability on her sole start as a juvenile. That debut came at Ascot in May last year, a race that has produced five winners since. The market may overreact to her seasonal reappearance at Newcastle - where she had no chance clipping heels in the first furlong and losing her rider.
If we ignore that run, she has the same profile as the possible market leaders; Amazing Speed and Journey, and will be a bigger price.
I like racing at the Scottish venue, but punting opportunities seem thin on the ground apart from this sprint Handicap. The angle here is looking at one of the most in-form yards in the north in Tim Easterby's (with six winners in the past fortnight), and the Yorkshire trainer saddles Soul Brother in the 14:55.
The 4yo was in too deep in several races during 2014, and this is a distinct drop in grade. He ran within half a length to subsequent Group 1 winner G Force in a Maiden last year, but struggled to match that afterwards (winning a nothing race on next start but one).
He needed his comeback run at Ripon and has dropped another 2lbs to a mark of 79. I'd perhaps like him drawn closer to the front runner, but with eight lining up, he represents a good bet each-way.
14:20 Musselburgh - Atlantic Affair (back-to-lay)
Atlantic Affair has five odds-on defeats In-Play in her career to date, and the Mark Johnston filly could oblige again in the 1m Handicap. She was an ultra busy 2yo who ran 11 times but only raced twice at three. She obviously has lost her way and clearly had an issue last year, but her official mark reflects that, which is now down to 67.
She hasn't been performing brilliantly on the All-Weather recently, but she hopefully will get an uncontested lead, which is what is needed to set up a back-to-lay bet. Anything around 2.809/5 in-running might be achievable, as I'm not sure she'll see her race out.
Friday's Recommended Bets
Back Ajmal Ihsaas @ 4.507/2 or bigger in the 16:10 at Lingfield
Back Soul Brother @ 8/1 each way on Sportsbook in the 14:55 at Musselburgh
Back-to-lay in running Atlantic Affair in the 14:20 at Musselburgh