Alan Dudman struck with his advised ante-post bet of Portage @ 15.50 last week at Royal Ascot, and is on the hunt for winners at Newcastle and Newmarket on Friday night...
"Friday's set of circumstances are appealing. She's fitter for a start, Candy struck with a Royal Ascot winner and his horses are finding their form. This trip of 1m2f is her best distance, and she's bang there on official ratings on 103."
18:55 Newmarket - Bolt to run them ragged in soft ground
Looking at this 18:55 handicap, I whittled it down to two runners that will handle the soft conditions - Baron Bolt and Kylla Instinct, and my selection is for the former.
With some big yards in this race, he's unlikely to head the charts in terms of natural talent, as there are a couple here with more attractive profiles. However, we should be able to get a run out of the Baron with his favoured mud flying around the ears, whilst some of the others might not handle it. I would also steer clear of market leader Generalship.
Baron Bolt hosed up on his seasonal reappearance at Catterick by six lengths, and finished second at Nottingham on soft ground. I wouldn't say he is a massively progressive horse from a mark of 76, but he might be a few pounds better in the prevailing conditions. Especially if there will be more rain.
He ran perfectly well recently at Kempton with first-time cheekpieces applied, and should be fine stepping up to seven furlongs.
19:45 Newcastle - Candy's filly can bounce back
As punters, we have all experienced staying loyal to certain horses, the question of course is when you have to say "no more".
I cannot say no to Henry Candy's Chain Of Daisies at Newcastle on Friday evening, as she lines up in the Listed Hoppings Stakes - one of the feature races on the card for fillies and mares.
I put her up in the column for her seasonal reappearance at Ayr - and despite going through the race well from the front for a chunk of the contest, her lack of fitness told and she retreated through the pack at a rapid rate. Her trainer's horses were still not firing at that point, plus the ground was too soft. Therefore we can completely throw out the run and she is a massive price for this considering her ability.
Friday's set of circumstances are appealing. She's fitter for a start, Candy struck with a Royal Ascot winner and his horses are finding their form. This trip of 1m2f is her best distance, and she's bang there on official ratings on 103.
Remember, she improved about 30lb last season, scoring four times, culminating in a Newmarket Listed success in beating Crystal Zvezda (officially rated 107). She is gritty, has loads of size, and I can see her going from the front and finding plenty.
20:15 Newcastle - Look out for the War Front
Sons or daughters of War Front tend to go for a few quid, and Trenches was no different in being sold for $300,000 as a yearling. And this Charlie Appleby colt makes his debut as a three-year-old in the 20:15 maiden.
His pedigree is rich with dirt winners, and his mother's (Sangrita) two runners to date both performed well on debut (a winner and a second). I'm happy to take around 4.03/1 for a first start, and it will be interesting to see what Adam Kirby does from stall 14 over the straight 7f. Jamie Spencer won on Thursday drawn high, but switched early and ended up over the far side.
The ones with experience set no more than a fair standard, and could prove vulnerable to something decent. That could be Trenches.
Friday's Recommended Bets
Back Baron Bolt @ 14.013/1 in the 18:55 at Newmarket
Back Chain Of Daisies @ 12/1 Sportsbook (half point EW) in the 19:45 at Newcastle
Back Trenches @ 4.03/1 in the 20:15 at Newcastle
Alan Dudman's profit and loss
Weekly P/L: 0.00
Previous week: -2.25
2015 P/L: +20.14