Alan Dudman takes over from Alan Thompson's very successful spell in the tipping chair. We should look out for a filly at Southwell, and an interesting ex-William Haggas horse at Newcastle on Friday evening...
"He was a horse who displayed a fair bit of ability on debut when scoring at Kempton last year. He picked up well to win over 7f, and he had a future at that stage."
15:00 Southwell - Lady to strut her stuff again on the sand
Lady Nayef done this column a big favour when scoring on her Southwell Fibresand debut at a decent price, and I think she will go well again in a cracking sprint handicap on Friday.
Course form is a must, and so are sire stats at this venue - and it's one of the reasons I like punting here. Her sire Nayef has a 30% strike-rate on the surface - which eclipses those sand monsters Dubawi and Speightstown (both 26%).
The selection ran in a hot 5f race last time at the track, and might have been inconvenienced by her draw to the near side. The pace came down the centre with Razin' Hell (who re-opposes today), and Lady Nayef was a chopped for speed right on the stands' rail but ran on very well. The winner was Poyle Vinnie - and he had 6f form and stayed on the best.
Her latest effort was a 0-105 handicap - a much stronger race than her debut success at Southwell. It showed she is still improving, and she might just sit on the tail of Razin' Hell again here today.
With a better draw in three today, she could be running on strongly towards the end.
20:15 Newcastle - Midgeley to find the key to tricky Boosh
If you don't like all-weather sprints - look away now!
If you do, there's lots of intrigue in this 6f contest. Namely the former William Haggas-trained Tarboosh - who clearly is a bit of handful. He was picked up for a bargain 8,000gns at Newmarket's October Sales, and is now trained by Paul Midgley.
He was a horse who displayed a fair bit of ability on debut when scoring at Kempton last year. He picked up well to win over 7f, and he had a future at that stage.
However, he was done at 1.02 in-running in a handicap at Chester last season (he carried his head high), and also cruised in a race at Haydock until two furlongs out, and his keen nature saw him trade at 1.72 in-play.
Tarboosh could be trouble, and he bombed out in his last three races. However, one was over 5f, and I like the angle of him being a 7f winner that races over a furlong shorter here - as you need something that stays at Newcastle.
I initially looked at Kevin Ryan's Foresight, as he has a bit of scope and should see this trip out well. However, Tarboosh has ability and is well-handicapped on that Kempton run.
Friday's Recommended Bets
Back Lady Nayef 0.5pt @ 9.08/1 in the 15:00 at Southwell
Back Tarboosh 0.5pt @ 8.07/1 in the 20:15 at Newcastle
Alan's Bets of the Day - P/L
This week so far: 0.00pts
Previous week: -2.50pts