Victoria Cup: Lightning set to strike at Ascot

Matt Gardner
08 May 2013

Who will emerge triumphant on Saturday?

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Timeform's Matt Gardner looks ahead to this weekend's Victoria Cup, which takes place over seven furlongs at Ascot on Saturday...

"The fact that Lightning Cloud has had a run this time, as opposed to 12 months ago, could be key as that Thirsk outing ought to have sharpened him up both physically and mentally..."

The Victoria Cup is one of THE competitive handicaps of the Flat season. Often, even on a mundane day of racing, a race will be referred to as being competitive but affairs such as the Victoria Cup, the Wokingham, the Stewards Cup and the Royal Hunt Cup take the ferocity of competition to a whole new level. Little betters the sight of 28 horses taking flight down the track, sometimes as one mass and others as several scattered battalions, in hope of becoming the latest "Saturday horse", the one that connections have managed to keep just ahead of its mark in the hope of landing one of these valuable prizes.

Levitate (Lincoln), Haaf A Sixpence (Spring Cup) and Norse Blues (Thirsk Hunt Cup) have tasted success in the three cavalry charges that have taken place so far this term, with just one of them seeking to add this contest to their role of honour.

Haaf A Sixpence had something of a tune up for his tilt at Newbury's Spring Cup when finishing third in the Spring Mile at Doncaster (had he landed that race I would have accredited him with an additional half a point in terms of big handicaps won this season, it's only a consolation race after all), and he went on to produce his best effort yet in beating Guest Of Honour by a length. He remains relative novices in terms of races run having taken to the track on just nine occasions and what is noticeable from a quick glance at his record is his strike-rate, with him landing the spoils four times. The handicapper has hit him with a rise of 5 lb, taking his BHA mark to 90, which might just be enough to seem him make the cut and seems unlikely to prevent him putting up a bold show. Ante-post word of warning: Haaf A Sixpence is also entered at Chester on Friday.

The aforementioned Guest Of Honour is certainly worthy of revisiting as the panache with which he travelled through the Spring Cup suggested that he could well have one of these handicaps in his locker. The four-year-old has done nothing but improve throughout his seven-race career, taking his form to a new level in first-time cheekpieces and on just his second race on turf as he chased home Haaf A Sixpence, but what most caught the eye was how stylishly he went about his business, adding weight to the impression that he is yet to reach his limit. Ante-post word of warning number two: Guest Of Honour is entered in the same race at Chester.

The next on our hit list quite simply has to be the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Enrol, a lightly-raced four-year-old filly who is closely related to the useful sprinter Enact. Enrol took a couple of outings to get her act together but, having landed a Lingfield maiden, she has demonstrated no signs of looking back in two starts since, scoring impressively at both Wolverhampton and Doncaster. Enrol has also been raised to a mark of 90, some 8 lb higher than for her most recent success, but with the Stoute yard firing on all cylinders at present and the suspicion being that Enrol will prove herself at an even higher level at some stage, she has to be firmly on any punters' radar. Ante-post word of warning number three: there isn't one really, although she does need a few to come out in order to gain a place in the field.

David O'Meara is rapidly making a name for himself in the training ranks, particularly with horses he acquires from other yards and abroad, and Two For Two has the hallmarks of being yet another excellent addition to his stable. The five-year-old, formerly trained in France by Nicolas Clement, finished second on debut for O'Meara after six months off the track but he has improved upon that form since, readily landing a good-quality handicap at Ripon last month. He was fancied to supplement that success with further glory in the Thirsk Hunt Cup but could only finish second, although things hardly went his way as, having been drawn wide, he was hampered before halfway which cost him vital ground before he stayed on in eye-catching fashion. This race comes fairly soon on the back of that but if that proves not to be a stumbling block he looks certain to be in the firing line.

A final one to mention in detail is Lightening Cloud, who has previous in this race having finished fifth 12 months ago. The five-year-old progressed right through 2011, hitting the mark on five occasions, and he kicked off in 2012 with the anticipation that yet more success would be forthcoming. His effort in this race was a good one, leading his group in the centre of the track but never able to get on terms with those who raced on the far-side, and he was sent off favourite for the Wokingham on his next outing. He was below form there, and on his next couple of starts, but he bounced back on his final outing of last year and displayed plenty of encouragement on his reappearance at Thirsk last month.

The fact that Lightning Cloud has had a run this time, as opposed to 12 months ago, could be key as that Thirsk outing ought to have sharpened him up both physically and mentally. The impression is that he is capable of scoring off a mark of 95, the same mark he contested this race off last year, and at the current prices he make plenty of appeal.

It is possible to make a case for far too many to mention them all by name but a couple worthy of a few words are Cape Classic and Tartiflette. The former arguably has work to do if he is to defy a mark of 97 but he demonstrated his well-being on his seasonal bow at Haydock and strikes as the type that is ideally suited to being held-up off a strong pace.

Tartiflette actually won that Haydock affair on her own reappearance, posting a career-best effort to score from a 5 lb higher mark than when entering the winners' enclosure at Doncaster at the end of last term. A further 5 lb rise doesn't seem excessive and she is lightly-raced enough to think that she could do better still.

On balance it is difficult to recommend wading into one in a race of this ilk, particularly with the final field yet to be determined, but at the ante-post stage the most appealing bet is Lightning Cloud. The five-year-old ran well in this race last year without having had a preparatory outing so, with a trip to Thirsk under his belt, he seems certain to put up a bold bid in an attempt to become the latest winner of one of 2013's big handicaps.

Recommendation:
Back Lightning Cloud in the Victoria Cup

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